Ukraine

The full phrase is usually "the dildo of consequences rarely arrives lubed". I don't know who coined it, but it's been around for some years.

EDIT: Using Google search by date, one of the earlier hits that Google indexed is this one, from 2017:

https://daily-devops.tumblr.com/post/161621189597/best-quote-about-the-elections-ever-the-dildo

That was June 9, 2017, and apparently talking about the British general election of 2017, so it goes back at least as far as that.

It looks like Google may try to infer date of post in some cases from websites, so date search finds some earlier ones, but nothing that appears to be reliably prior to that. They're apparently quoting someone, so I doubt that that's the first time it was used.