lennybird

It's insane that a country whose economy is 1/8th that of California alone and whose population is 35x smaller has the US by the balls in this way.

Can you link to that conversation? I'm not seeing in your history or on their mod log.

You've identified the problem many see, but what is the solution?

This demographic is notoriously hard to reach and the nature of its age and inexperience leads to having their priorities woefully out of whack and susceptible to shit like Joe Rogan and Andrew Tate to Jordan Peterson. Asking or forcing them to watch Mr. Rogers isn't going to cut it, if you know what I mean.

New York Dems... From Bloomberg to Cuomo to Hochul and Donald Trump himself... They're definitely... Special. (I should include Menendez in that, too).

His entire methodology is contingent on history repeating itself. But we know we live in times of historical firsts that defy extrapolation.

With key 2 it's less about the definition and more about the allotted weight of importance. Like, imagine if the DNC simply said that "we are unilaterally awarding all delegate votes to Biden and skipping a Primaries voting process for our Democratic voters." Yes, the key would still be True, but would that mean jack shit? Not really. And again, Incumbency is more a liability when the incumbent President's approval rating matches Jimmy Carter. His Charisma keys are another example of subjective interpretation and which itself is clearly reflective of opinion polls.

For all our sake, I hope he's right. But his prediction is just as if not more useless than the aggregation of A+ polls in moments of time that can actually adapt to changing circumstances, including things like impactful scandals, military success / failures, and social unrest.

At the end of the day Perception is Reality; even if the economy is doing well in short and long-term on paper, we again unfortunately live in unprecedented times where that is not being felt by the actual people who are, you know, going to the ballot box.

Well first you gotta hawk tuah.

Their word choice could be a little better but if you understand the various degrees of Nazism 1930s Germany, this kind of rings true. Most nazi party members weren't these dyed-in-the-wool SS types with full knowledge of the gas chambers; but they certainly conveniently looked the other way and enabled and benefited from it just the same. Naturally, many of these would continue to radicalize. Ignorance, greed, apathy, psychopathy, sure.... Varying amounts at the individual level — yet all volunteer to reside under the same unifying banner.

Many of the keys are subject to arbitrary interpretation; Nate Silver criticized his process and arguably has a better probability model with more consistent accuracy across thousands of races somewhere around 90%. Key 2 was given to Biden despite the writing on the wall that 2/3 of Democrats wanted a contest both before and after the primaries. Key 3 Incumbency these days is more of a liability with both candidates distancing themselves. Key 9 Scandals have lost a lot of meaning in the Trump era.

Should be noted that he gave a full-throated endorsement of Hillary Clinton... only to predict she'd lose. The thing is, he had originally referenced in two different publications ahead of that prediction that she would specifically lose the popular vote. She didn't. He then changed his model.

Also I'm not a fan of this guy because he belittled with insults those who called for Biden to step down... Despite not giving a prediction on Biden at the time.

Both of you are kind of right. It's still an insane feat of endurance but averaging an 18 minute mile is pretty damn slow and likely zone 2-3 even in rugged terrain for an athlete like her.

High intensity isn't just a generalized term but specific to heart rate, lactate buildup, and anaerobic states.

I'm really curious about this. We know Trump changed his residency from NY to FL and I wonder if that had anything to do with this. To my knowledge Cannon was an unfortunate product of randomized selection.

I can't get over what a star-studded cast the Harry Potter films had... Smith, Harris, Rickman, Oldman, Thewlis, Coltrane... I could go on. The child actors were so fortunate to have that experience and to meet and learn from such legends.