this post was submitted on 15 Jul 2025
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There are some actual real-life examples that match your theoreticals, but the piece missing is the scale of consequences. What has generally occurred is that the fallout from the old thing failing wasn't that big of a deal, or that a modern solution could be designed and built completely replacing the legacy solution even without full understanding of it.
A really really small example of this if from my old 1980s Commodore 64 computer. At the time it used a very revolutionary sound chip to make music and sound effects. It was called the SID chip. Here's one of the them constructed in 1987.
It combined digital technologies (which are still used today) with analog technologies (that nobody makes anymore in the same way). Sadly, these chips also have a habit of dying over time because of how they were originally manufactured. With the supply of these continuously shrinking there were efforts to come up with a modern replacement. Keep in mind these are hobbyists. What they came up with was this:
This is essentially a whole Raspberry Pi computer that fits in the same socket in the 1980s Commodore 64 that accepts the input music instructions from the computer and runs custom written software to produce the same desired output the legacy digital/analog SID chip built in 1982. The computing power in this modern replacement SID chip replacement is more than 30x that of the entire Commodore 64 from the 80s! It could be considered overkill to use so much computing power where the original didn't, but again, compute is dirt cheap today. This new part isn't expensive either. Its about $35 to buy.
This is what I think will happen when our legacy systems finally die without the knowledge to service or maintain them. Modern engineers using modern technologies will replace them providing the same function.
I certainly hope so! Human ingenuity has gotton us here. I'm interacting with you across who knows how much distance, using a handheld device that folds up. .....but, just because we've gotten ahead of trouble and found solutions thus far, doesn't mean that an unintended bit of code, or hardware fault, or lack of imagination can't cause consequences further down the road. I appreciate your optimism and pragmatic understanding. You seem to be a solution driven person that believes in our ability to reason and fix things. We'll definitely need that type of attitude and approach when and if something goes sideways.
Absolutely true.
I guess my thought is that the benefits of our rapid growth outweigh the consequences of forgotten technology. I'll admit though, I'm not unbiased. I have a vested interest. I do very well professionally being the bridge of some older technologies to modern ones myself.