While this comment is a bit out there, I beg everyone to hear me out: the strongest sign I've seen that the potential ceasefire in Gaza is expected to go ahead and last for the next few months, has to do with the activities of Ansar Allah (known as the Houthis in mainstream western media) and their latest operations, with regards to the types of missiles that they are using in their attacks. Now again I know that might sound mad, but I'll explain my thoughts below.
My analysis
Ansar Allah are an interesting party to follow because they have operated, throughout this confrontation with Israel to try stop the genocide in Gaza and ease the pressure on them, on a first in last out model. They were some of the first to fire directly at Israel, launching Qadr ballistic missiles at the port of Eliat in Israel on the 6th November 2023, resulting in the first instance of space combat in history when Israeli Arrow-3 interceptor missiles intercepted it. They also began operations against Israel on the 19th October 2023, before Israel even launched their full invasion of Gaza on the 27th. So they will, I assume, be one of, if not the last, groups to cease fire on Israel. Which makes their recent operations interesting.
I'll start with their operations against US Navy aircraft carrier battle groups. Ever since the attack that resulted in the US Navy downing their own F/A-18F aircraft via friendly fire, Ansar Allah have exclusively used cruise missiles and drones to attack the carrier groups and no Anti Ship Ballistic Missiles (ASBMs). I think it's been four times in a row now that they've attacked the US Navy without using ASBMs, according to their own press releases. This is extremely odd in my view, considering that Ansar Allah made use of these weapons in the past in large numbers. The first attack can be explained by a change of strategy, but four times in a row, without achieving the same results as the first attack? Their Iranian designed Manoeuvrable Re-entry Vehicle (MARV) equipped ASBMs are the most sophisticated and modern anti ship weapons in the Ansar Allah and Iranian arsenal, in fact Ansar Allah are the first group in history to use ASBMs in warfare. So why have these weapons disappeared from the battlefield?
Secondly, we can look at their recent attacks against Israel. In the last few weeks, Ansarallah started using Zulfiqar series ballistic missiles in their attacks against Israel and not just Palestine-2 ballistic missiles, as confirmed by their own press releases and photos of missile debris from a new type of missile. The only missile in the Zulfiqar series that has the range to hit Israel from Yemen is the Haj Qasem missile, named after Qasem Soleimani. The debris found a few weeks ago matched this missile. And today, a missile booster stage that got lodged in the attic of a house in Israel was removed, and this booster stage matches the Haj Qasem missile, I'll post an image below. Also a cruise missile was launched against Israel, the first in a long time as usually only ballistic missiles and drones are used.
So Ansar Allah is now using Zulfiqar series ballistic missiles cruise missiles on attacks against Israel, and not exclusively using Palestine-2 missiles and drones as they did previously. Now while both the Haj Qasem and Palestine-2 ballistic missiles are MARV equipped, the Palestine-2 is the more advanced missile. I've seen it described as a battlefield prototype using technologies from both the Kheibar Shekan series and the Fattah-1 missiles, the most advanced operational missiles in Iran's arsenal, with highly manoeuvrable and aerodynamic MARVs capable of long glide phases, and a sustainer rocket motor attached to the MARV itself on the Fattah-1. This is why Iran and Ansar Allah call these weapons hypersonic weapons. Fattah literally means "the opener". These are special purpose weapons. By contrast, the Haj Qasem missile is a way of extending the range the common MaRV of the Zulfiqar series missiles to 1400+km by fitting it to a giant booster stage, this same MARV is used on the Zoheir, original Zulfiqar, Dezful and Haj Qasem. So it's more of a general purpose weapon.
With the trend of Ansar Allah using less sophisticated weapons to carry out their recent attacks now being established, the question is why is this happening. Is Iran no longer giving Ansar Allah the shipments of the parts and materials needed to assemble and manufacture these weapons because they expect a ceasefire? Or have Ansar Allah themselves made the decision to stop producing these weapons because of an upcoming ceasefire? I think such is a definite possibility.
Ballistic missiles with a long enough range to hit Israel from Yemen are expensive, and highly advanced bespoke weapons like the Palestine-2, even more so. We're taking about hundreds of thousands of dollars, or even millions of dollars per missile. Iraq bought SCUD B missiles for 1 million US dollars per missile (including long term support) back before the Gulf War. That works out to over 2.5 million US dollars per missile today. And solid fueled MARV capable missiles are more sophisticated than SCUDs. The first MARV capable missile, the United States' Pershing II missile, the cost per unit works out to 10 million US dollars in today's money, when adjusted for inflation. ASBMs require advanced terminal guidance systems in the warhead itself such as radars and electro optical sensors that can survive atmospheric re-entry, this is obviously very expensive. Yemen is one of the poorest countries on earth, they will not spend the money and resources required to produce or acquire such missiles unnecessarily. If there's a ceasefire on the horizon, there's no need for these weapons or to burn through the stockpiles of the most advanced stuff, deterrence can be established using cheaper and less sophisticated systems, at least for now.
