this post was submitted on 03 Aug 2024
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I find it hard to believe that there is real value under that.
The player that predicts it best is unlikely to be a great forecaster. They are likely to be a statistical anomaly that comes from having millions of people make uneducated guesses.
But hey, maybe there is something there and they just didn't explain it enough?
I imagine he's thinking of the thing where you get a crowd to guess the weight of a cow and then take the average of their guesses.
Plus, the people most affected by inflation aren't usually the ones attempting to forecast it.
Yeah, wisdom of crowds is a thing. Maybe I misunderstood what they meant. You ask everyone to predict, use the average for whatever Supervillain plan you have, then reward people who guessed better than the fed as an incentive to keep playing?
I would worry the reward and prior knowledge of the fed forecast would interfere with the wisdom of the crowd.