this post was submitted on 28 Sep 2024
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I can't wait for the AI bubble to burst.
Which tech titan does it take with it?
My money is on Microsoft as owners of OpenAI, but most have sunk more into it than they should.
Nvidea. Their share price would be a fraction of what it is without AI. Just like the last two cryptocurrency bubbles, they went all in and then acted surprised when they popped.
At the same time, they've lost a lot of goodwill with gamers, formerly their core audience. With the AAA industry pulling back, games might not be pushing the limits of GPU tech anymore. Microsoft still has their old core products, but Nvidia may return to it to find a wasteland.
Nvidia isn't going to be holding any bag. They're selling through what they make, and LLMs are just one of many uses for the massively parallel math they're at the forefront of. At most they have to bring pricing down, but they don't own the fab, so if demand did drop (which isn't really all that likely), their costs will go down too. They have contracts in terms of volume and price, but they're not near long term enough to do them more than a blip, and all their investment in developing architecture/tooling has value well outside of LLM nonsense.