this post was submitted on 24 Oct 2024
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At the very least, a strong majority of russians are supporters of genocidal imperialism, however a solid argument could be made that it's more like an overwhelming majority.
This holds true across all demographic segments; income, education, age, region, rural vs urban. You may have a situation where the support for genocidal imperialism is a mere majority (e.g. younger cohorts), while others approach an almost absolute majority (older cohorts), but the majority always holds no matter how you slice and dice it.
This is backed by almost all quantitative and qualitative research conducted over past ~35 years. I can share a pretty funny anecdote about how an allegedly opposition minded russian (who gets quoted in the NYT) had to twist his own quantitative findings to present a better picture of russian society.
Even recent qualitative research run by opposition minded russian researchers shows a damning picture among of even allegedly moderate russians (in russian, I can share it).
A strong majority of everyday russian support the extermination of Ukrainian culture and sending everyone who disagrees to a torture camp. And this is not limited to Ukraine, they have a similar attitude to all nations that freed themselves from cancer that was the USSR.
Unfortunately many are ignorant of the nature of russian society or prefer to reject difficult information (it's just social media hate).
Torvalds is a Finn and he understand these things and he doesn't have the liberty of shying away from reality.
When compare "Fuck Russians" to "Fuck Jews"; what exactly are you referring to? Russian as in the ethnicity or Russian as in the nationality. This is actually a pretty important point.
I wonder what your sources are, yes.
Talking to many, many Russians on the ground, I certainly don't see the picture you're presenting. The absolute majority of Russian youth I know is anti-war and anti-Putin, with only a few exceptions; among older generations there is more support for Putin, but it often boils down to "who else can keep Russia from crumbling in these trying times?" - a flawed argument, but again, not coming from bloodlust or an appetite for war. Maintaining of the war is seen by them as more of a necessity, and victory as a condition to save the country from collapse.
Even the government tries to veil it into "we're against the Nazi regime of Ukraine, not against Ukrainians", because Ukrainians are absolutely seen as brotherly people, and the fact they die is tragic to most. The blatant "let's kill Ukrainian pigs" position is seen as cringe at best, and is likely to call a punch in the face.
Fair point on ethnicity vs nationality, thanks, and I'd like to explore it. Whenever the matter of Russians comes up, people rarely make the distinction. For example, when I commented on ethnic Russians getting more access to their own culture in Latvia thanks to EU intervention and acceptance of Russians as an ethnic minority, people made little distinction between ethnic Russians (including kindergarten kids who just happened to be born to two Russians) and Russian soldiers on the battlefield, ready to conquer the country.
But here, really, it doesn't alter my point. We shouldn't say "fuck all Israelis" either, because they too are a diverse group of people with vastly different views - some of them are straight up Arabs, and among the Israeli Jews, opinions on the war vary strongly.
The last two russians that I still speak to are genuinely anti-putin and support Ukraine. Does that mean this is true of all russians or does that mean there something about who I choose to speak to bringing about such a result?
You claim they are "anti-war" and yet you talk about " war is seen by them as more of a necessity". You are either anti-war or you're not. A strong majority (if not an overwhelming majority) are pro war. You're defacto whitewashing russian genocidal imperialism.
When it comes down to it, the majority of russians support extermination of Ukrainian culture, language and identity (and torturing everyone who doesn't agree).
The brotherly people bla bla is just an example of russian supremacists' thinking. This "brotherly people" pitch clearly does not include self-determination or the right to develop your own culture (and getting rid of settler colonialism). It fails if you bring up something like reparations (even among allegedly liberal minded russians). The "brotherly people" pitch is a ruse for the ignorant and naive.
Don't fucking lie about "the fact they [Ukrainians] die is tragic to most". This is really fucking low on your part. The majority of the country (at any reasonable level of sociological segmentation) openly supports genocidal imperialism against Ukraine and other countries. A small minority might be somewhat ambivalent but generally sees it as a fair sacrifice for their comfort.
It's funny that you bring up russian colonial settlers in Latvia. Even with access to free media, democratic institutions, economic growth, among russians in Latvia support for Russian/Ukrainian victory roughly evenly split (although majority claim to not know which country they support). The Latvian most definitely should be very careful
I've never lived in Israel/Palestine and I don't speak Arabic or Hebrew.
I have lived in Russia for over a decade (I can tell some funny, almost absurdist, encounters with russian racism) and I speak fluent russian. It is reasonable to claim that an overwhelming majority of russians are genocidal imperialists.
And I am not saying they would openly admit to it. But if you know how to ask questions (in russian) in a subtle way, you can see that their worldview is supremacist and aligns with the extermination of the culture of neighbouring nations and forcing them to be become subservient to the russian national identity.
Random selection of lesser know research:
-https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/20531680221108328 -https://meduza.io/feature/2024/06/25/a-kogda-uzhe-pobeda-to-nasha-budet -https://www.jiia.or.jp/en/column/2022/09/russia-fy2022-01.html
The second URL is in russian. A fascinating read. You should send to one of your anti-war younger russians.
You can easily do a web search confirming from multiple research groups that a strong majority of russians support the invasion of Ukraine and the destruction of its culture. I shared some lesser known research that provides counter arguments to the usual low effort russian whitewashing with respect to sociological research.
No, I've put "war as a necessity" group separate from "anti-war".
Through the virtue of being Russo-Ukrainian (and currently residing in Russia) I constantly speak to people of very wide backgrounds, and I listen to conversations around.
There are people who are generally speaking of exterminating Ukraine, putting Z signs on the vehicles etc., but there aren't that many of them.
There are some that want to restore "Slavic world", and many more that talk about "saving Russia", which is certainly imperialist and serving Putin's agenda, but not aimed at exterminating Ukrainians per se (and having close Ukrainian roots and many relatives under rocket strikes, I am very sensitive to the narrative of destroying culture or people, my culture and my people, so I notice when it happens).
And there is a majority of people I know, people that are opposed to war, some mildly and mostly out of care for their families, some strongly and coming from something more. Most of them have something to lose, and even those who previously protested now can't risk that, because regime got way more brutal. They literally don't know what to do. I don't know what to do while my close ones are in danger.
Colonial settlers? Latvian Russians are the kids and grandkids of those who moved there back when this was seen as yet another region. These people never chose to be born in Latvia, but so is their home, and they happen to be Russians. People of any ethnicity in any country should have access to their culture; this is one of the basic rights everyone should have. No exceptions.
As you can guess from previous paragraphs, I speak Russian fluently as well, только при этом я здесь живу по сей день и могу оценить, как дела обстоят на самом деле и что думают обычные люди. Местами в регионах это совпадает с зарисовками, опубликованными Медузой, но в целом я вижу больше разговоров и об украинцах, хотя очень часто исподтишка, невзначай, как вот про "украинских ребят" из той же зарисовки. It's hard to openly protest and voice open dissent, though.
On the sources: 1.Clearly states that the only relevant result is that Russians do indeed hide their dissent, and estimates may be wrong even when asking indirectly, and are certainly skewed with direct answers. 2.Quite an interesting read, though there's mainly one true and important takeaway: many Russians, especially in the small regions that have always lived a slow life, face inability to protest it openly, end up growing frustrated and escape long discussions of the war. This is commonly known as "getting tired" of it, but there is a deeper level to it. 3.Sources info from article 1 and misinterprets it.
The problem is, the research you provided only confirms that there is an issue of hiding true opinions, without definitively stating wide support. A list method employed not only doesn't guarantee honest answers (just makes them more likely), it also has plenty of inaccuracies of its own, as it brings about many contentious things people could agree or disagree on.
There's one thing we have in common - we want this war to end. You, probably for overall peace in the world, me, because my close ones are in danger, hiding from mobilization, living with intermittent electricity, not knowing what tomorrow is gonna bring, and also for global peace, of course. But seeing how it unfolds in Russia, how russophobia channels and feeds into Russian nationalism - something that can easily be weaponized - I really don't think this is the answer. Russians the people are truly in the hard spot right now, they don't need someone to tell them to go figure this out, and if there is a way to support any anti-war effort inside Russia, this will go a much longer way than animosity and rejection based on where they happen to be.
And I don't buy your claim that everyone is "anti-war" and a small minority believes that “war is a necessity”. Your anecdotal experience is not really relevant when we have qualitative, quantitative research and reality (that russian have been directly occupying three nations since the USSR broke up - is this not fucking imperialism).
As I wrote earlier, it's not only an issue with those who openly express their genocidal imperialism (and there are tens of millions of such adults). It's also those who doesn't see a big problem or think it's a fair sacrifice that works for them. Such people are just as bad and their actions lead to the same outcomes.
This is just white-washing russian genocidal intent. Your "restore the slavic world" fellows know full well that russia is doing everything possible to exterminate Ukrainian culture (not to mention torturing tens of thousands of civilians and terrorizing millions). They all know it and they all support it.
The overwhelming majority supported the annexation of Crimea (80-85%), the occupation of Donbass and the full scale invasion. Same with the 2008 invasion of Georgia. And yet you bring the people you know?
For Latvia to be their home, they would need to learn Latvian language and be part of Latvian culture as opposed to supporting Putin and imperialism more broadly. You can't call a place your home when your loyalties lie to a regime that wants to destroy the country you allegedly call home.
What an interesting interpretation of the first paper. It pretty clearly states that preference falsification is at around 10% with support for the full scale invasion going from 75% (direct polling) to 65% (list experiment).
This is complete bullshit that directly contradicts the findings of the paper. The authors even explicitly state that due to their methodology they believe that the true level of support is higher than 65% even when accounting for preference falsification.
List experiments have issues, any methodology does. But when multiple quantitative methodologies and qualitative research show the same findings, you can't just bring up "plenty of inaccuracies of its own".
Did we read the same paper? It's a pretty damning picture of even those who are not aggressively pro-imperialist genocide. I don't see what getting tired or not getting has to do with anything. They still support the russian army (that send cruise missiles into children's cancer hospitals) and in principle they are OK with killings and destruction as long as it benefits them.
This is great example of supremacist russian thinking. It perfect aligns with notion that a strong majority of russians are genocidal imperialist (while not necessarily open stating this).
Let me translate:
"We want to keep 20% of Ukraine [and attack again later], because of "world peace", we all want "world peace", right?"
"Show respect to us russians, this is nothing. If you don't show us respect we will fuck you up!"
"Russians the people are truly in the hard spot right now" - Typical russian victimhood. They are always the victims in any situation!
"and if we can influence them in a friendly way, we should, because animosity clearly doesn’t help" - There is not a single example in recent history of russians doing any type of good faith actions in the geopolitical sphere. On the contrary, a recognition that a strong majority of russians are genocidal imperialists, that they do not believe in human rights (beyond using the concept for manipulation and lies) and they support authoritarianism (in their own country, but in others too) is the only way forward.
Authors clearly stated that the result can be inaccurate and some percentage of Russians may not answer honestly even under such conditions, and in conclusions, they only ended up confirming some people do seemingly hide their true opinions (although the extent of it may vary as the studied group was not representative of entire Russian population and was taken from Toloka, a place attracting specific demographic not fully representative of general Russian population).
It sure is important to know Latvian language, but for that they already have Latvian language tests for those coming into Latvian citizenship. They can, however, hold any culture they want, while respecting Latvian law and basic customs. Same applies to anyone anywhere, including any minorities of Russia or Ukraine. In any case, trying to erase Russian identity is not the answer, which is obvious to legislators outside the country.
Did I say anything about borders? You literally made this up. When I say I want peace, honestly, I don't give a single damn where the border will be - where it is now, or where it has originally been, or anything in between. I want for two countries, both of which are my homes, mind you, to stop putting their men in the meat grinder. And I know plenty of people on both sides of the Russo-Ukrainian frontline share my sentiment.
But attacking Russians on the Internet and excluding them from everywhere further radicalizes them, leaves them bitter to the outside world, which can lead them to believe y'all really are the enemies to fight against. By alienating Russians, such people just feed into Putin's narrative that the world is full of hostiles. This has nothing to do with victimhood or imperialism - this is basic human psychology, and it would work exactly the same anywhere else.
I strongly wish Russian aggression would stop, I care for it with all my heart. Again, my close ones are in fear of an attack as we speak. But I also happen to see the perspective of everyday Russians - something that most of those judging never get to see or even consider, naively thinking that they are the "punishers" for incorrect behavior, and that more of that will lead to a "child" getting to learn good behavior. No - slowly, but surely you simply raise bitterness and become an enemy. And they won't get themselves to blame, and they will march with their wraith. Not on you. On my people. My grandmother. My uncle. My brother. His wife. I could just never talk about those things, present myself as a Ukrainian (after all, I am one) and go about my life, but too much is at stake for me to stay silent when y'all are doing the stupidest shit you can.
You're lying about the authors conclusions. They explicitly stated that the support was higher than 65% due to their methodology. And they did clearly state that preference falsification is a mere ~10%. Therefore their research (like any quantitative research on this topic) supports my statement that the majority of russians are genocidal imperialists as they want to conquer Ukraine and destroy Ukrainian identity.
No, they need to learn the Latvian language at a high level if they want to live there. This is basic component of calling a place your home. You have to some loyalty to your country and not support a genocidal enemy. The fact that russian culture is at least on some level defined by genocidal imperialism is not a problem of the Latvians. This is basic stuff.
Ukraine is not your home. You are a russian, no Ukrainian would try to come up with "war is necessity" word salad or your comical “russians the people are truly in the hard spot right now”. So don't lie!
You don't care about borders because you don't care about the ten of thousands of civilians in russian torture dungeons. We also both know that vast majority of russians are not interested in any kind of real peace. Just like in 2014, the goal is to get some breathing room, then attacks and try and get more territory and exterminate Ukrainian culture in the newly occupied territories. This approach is nearly universally known and (silently) supported by a strong majority of russians.
GTFO with your "on my people". You defend russian imperialism and colonialism and you dare to imply you have some relation to Ukraine?
Victimhood is a defining element of russian culture. Without it there is no russian "culture". Conspiracy theories blaming foreign countries for any and all ills are extremely prevalent in russian society. This has been true in the past, this is true today and it will be true in the future.
I don't understand what you mean by your "punisher" sentence. The vast majority russians already blame everyone but themselves for all their problems. You brought up russophobia as an implicit excuse for russian crimes. Russophobia doesn't really exist. When a society consist of a strong majority of genocidal imperialists that lack empathy, it is reasonable to see that society as a threat and a problem. This is not rocket science.
Have you ever seen a well known russian (outside a few figures like Novodvorskaya) admit that at least part of the problem lies in russian society at large? I think not ... because we both know the role of victimhood among russians.
To develop a russia strategy that works, the world needs to understand that russians will never act in good faith, russians will always play the victim and a strong majority of russians are committed and genuine ethno-racial supremacists that lack empathy.
Alienating russians is a red herring. The only way forward is a sober view of russian culture and methods and an understanding that russia only understand force; you have to treat them like they treat others.
Even if that were true (which is not, read the damn conclusions section), this doesn't support your emotional notion. And as much as I'd like to share such a simple outrage, it's not helpful.
It would be weird to see all Russians born in Latvia only support Latvian side of things, just as it would be weird to see each and every Latvian born in Russia supporting Russia.
I never said I see war as necessary, I say many of the people that can be defined as pro-war are not for it because they want to see Ukrainians gone. I personally am anti-war and I call for peace through whatever means necessary, because - surprise surprise - I care about people's lives and you seemingly don't. It is curently you who calls for brute force solutions.
And you trying to say my ethnicity is not valid is laughable. Oh yeah, gonna be unborn to my Ukrainian father and forget my entire Ukrainian bloodline. Maybe your cultural shock at facing a Ukrainian who doesn't immediately call to destroy all Russians is your problem? Then go around and maybe talk to some outside political circlejerks.
Russian culture is independent and beautiful, not defined by anything in particular - just as Ukrainian. You trying to minimize it to "victimhood" or even politics more broadly is an insult to everything good the country has produced - and there is plenty.
The perfect scenario I see is peace talks, and then Ukraine joining NATO. There are talks on the NATO side, but they require Ukraine to leave the current war first. I do think this is the best way forward, as Russian security guarantees are proven not to be trusted.
Seeing any national or ethnic group as "inherently dangerous" is nothing but a way to more abuse, and a common justification for imperialist wars, too. There is no such society in Russia, and seeing it this way is an issue of your perception. But regardless, make peace talks and then invite Ukraine to NATO. Problem solved.
This is just one survey you can look multiple other (different provider, different methodologies) and they show the same thing. Bold of you to call me emotional when you're approach to any and all research (or even history for that matter) is "it's not valid if it doesn't show russians in a good light".
They are not really Latvian if they support Latvia's enemies, are they? This is not a complex topic, if you don't support the country, don't want to learn the language, don't care for the culture, then you can't call the country your home.
The goal and the outcome of the war and occupation of Ukrainian territories. Preference falsification goes both ways. This is not some sort of secret information; the individuals know full well that Ukrainian are brutally prosecuted in the occupied territories and they support it. That is why they are genocidal imperialists.
Never denied your ethnic background. I said you are not Ukrainian; not all Ukrainians are ethnically Ukrainian (one example would be Crimean Tartars). You don't speak Ukrainian, you don't live in Ukraine, you openly white-wash russian genocidal imperialism, you support settler colonialism in the Baltic nations (literally saying the Latvia must tolerate individuals that openly oppose Latvian statehood and want to turn Latvia into an authoritarian hellhole).
I brought up victimhood because revanchism and victimhood are defining features of russian culture. It doesn't have to be that way, but that is the choice russians make. Going back to my previous post, show me one example where a public figure (not Novodvorskaya or Kasprov) admitted that at least some of russia's trouble are the cause of russians themselves and they need to take responsibility for their actions. Since you claim that victimhood is not a defining element of russian society/culture, this should be easy.
I am not going to speculate on future developments. One thing I will say is I would never trust any russian who talks about "peace".
I believe I explicitly stated that I don't believe that russians are "inherently imperialist". I do believe that this a choice that they make and that we should treat them as adults.
Earlier in this thread someone (was it you?) claimed that russians have no access independent non-state media. I pointed out that this was false and that every russian with a smartphone has had uncensored access to youtube (until this summer) and that major reliable news agencies have had russian language service on YT since ~2010. The point being is that the broad alignment of a strong majority of russian society with state propaganda is a choice! And russians need to take responsibility for it.
You mentioned helpful. Let me flip this around a bit. How has your approach ("russians are defacto completely innocent and you're just spreading hate!") been helpful to your own country?
What has your "opposition" achieved in the past 15 years? I will note that they have largely maintained a chauvinistic posture - e.g. support the annexation of Crimea. How will everyone (Ukrainians? the west?) being "helpful" (as defined by you) impact anything in Russia?
No, I just highlight that the research you provided doesn't say what you want it to say. And I can't really find many articles that confirm your notion.
You can call the country your home if you constantly live and/or were born there. Quite straightforward to me. Now, it would certainly be handy to learn the language and familiarize with the culture - which many Latvian Russians do - and it's a correct turn to make Latvian courses mandatory - but suppressing Russian culture is a step too far, and something that should never be applied to anyone. Luckily, I'm not the only one thinking this way.
I do speak Ukrainian (мова, anyone?), although I must admit that since I've spent more time living here in Russia and not everyone even in Ukraine spoke Ukrainian, I do speak Russian better. But same is true for most Eastern Ukrainians anyway.
I don't white-wash anything, I'm only saying hostility is not a viable option. You, along many others, try to push all blame on everyday Russians - and there could be a grain of truth to that, more could be done a decade ago to make sure this never happens - but what do you want now? What is the proposed course of action, exactly?
When those questions come up, I don't know the answers. And I desperately wish to have one. One thing I do know is that getting hostile to Russians makes them hostile to you, which gradually shifts the idea of hostile Russians into a self-fulfilling prophecy, boosting Putin's support. If you didn't see it, one of the main patriotic tropes of Russia is that the world is full of enemies that hate Russians. Don't make this true; people do not reason when they are despised, and they will not come to the conclusion that this is meant to stimulate them to do something. By trying to make Russians feel "consequences of their actions", you really just feed directly into Putin's propaganda machine and make Russians actually hate you.
No, that wasn't me, and media can be accessed - at least via VPNs. Not gonna argue on that - and I still insist the support is not as broad as you imagine it to be, although sometimes it looks like some folks do everything in their power to make it true. Also, collective punishment over those in particular who support the war is never a good option at any ratio. This, by the way, has further alienated some of the opposition.
As I said, I do not have strong opinions on Russo-Ukrainian border. If Ukraine retakes Crimea and Donbass, then be it. If Russia captures them, okay. You think the reason I'm talking this is because I take the side of Russia, but I don't take either side. If Ukraine ends up including Kursk (which was Russian pre-war), and Russia ends up including Luhansk (which was Ukrainian pre-war), and the peace is then brokered, whatever! I have zero loyalty to either country, and see the concept of a country to be imposed and alien, introducing conflicts over nothing that actually matters. I am, however, loyal to people, all people, and naturally sensitive to the struggles of those living on both sides of this very border. And on one side there are people not only suffering from rocket strikes, but also chased and beaten and pushed to go to their death (aka бусифікація), and on the other the country is turning into a war machine, feeding its young men into the grinder as well (aka могилизация). Stop that first, it's an obvious priority task, isn't it?
Now, does this approach of hostility make it any closer? If anything, it makes peace further away, it drives people further away. And it's a big deal.
Maybe being nice to Russians didn't help them stop Putin. But being hostile to Russians plays straight into Putin's deck. It looks, however, like retribution for you is the goal in itself, not a measure to actually help anyone, on any side of the frontline.
With that said, I don't think this is the kind of conversation worth having.
Russians are already hostile to Ukrainians my man. Saying "if you don't treat us with respect, then we'll really fuck you up, this is nothing!" is just another facet of russian supremacist and imperialist thinking. As are your justifications of protecting russian settler colonialism in Ukraine or Latvia.
What fucking self-fulfilling prophecy? Russians have been invading Ukraine and working on eradicating Ukrainian identity for a third of independent Ukraine's history (and that's just one example, there is also Moldova, Georgia, Chechnya and Belarus). Not to mention all the work russians have done on trying to eliminate Ukrainian identity in the centuries before.
Being nice to russians? How were Ukrainians not nice to russians before 2014? We decided to demonstrate self-determination?
We've seen how peace was brokered after 2014. So spare your fake calls for peace. You full well know that peace for most russians is just re-grouping period for another invasion and more mass murder of Ukrainians.
Buying into false allegation that the majority of russians do not want to eradicate Ukrainian identity is not going to bring peace in Ukraine.
The first step for Ukrainian society (and it's sad that it took so much death and destruction to get there) is recognizing that:
Poland and the Baltic nations recognized this and successfully took measures to account for this (you can't invade them and you destroy their culture).
We did not and that is why we are going through this current hell.
I dare say it's an outcome of being nice to russians before 2014.