this post was submitted on 06 Nov 2024
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Honestly.... I kinda can. This is an extreme and unlikely scenario, but there's a few things that make me think it's not impossible.
A) Trump has publicly promised to back out of NATO.
B) Trump is generally very pro-Russia.
C) Trump has generally had poor relations with Canada.
If the US backed out of NATO, they'd have a lot of military power sitting idle, and NATO would be significantly weaker, as well as doubly occupied in Ukraine. Russia would certainly be interested in such a thing happening, given the strategic importance of Antarctica, and how much it would take eyes away from them. I also don't doubt for a second that Trump would love to exploit our natural resources, especially oil, and the military importance of the top of the world. Not to mention it'd be an excuse to continue creating expensive military contracts and posturing as tough.
This is of course, mostly fantasy, but Trump is nothing if not unpredictable.
With the US out of NATO, USA aggression towards a NATO ally would provoke a response. Also, NATO is not involved with Ukraine. This means that all of NATO can focus on USA aggression. Considering the significant force difference between a non-NATO USA and the rest of NATO, I imagine that nuclear response as an opener is heavily weighed. Glass Washington D.C., then ask if the USA would like to retreat to US lines before they glass NYC. Primary response would be through UK nuclear submarine along the Atlantic.