this post was submitted on 05 Jul 2023
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Threads being in the Fediverse is a plus for me, not a negative. It means I could follow regular people and friends who would never in a million years join places like Mastodon or Lemmy while I still get the benefits of being on those platforms, all while being shielded from Meta’s ads and data harvesting. The only issue is I don’t actually believe Zuck will go through with it. They’ll either never federate or severely limit it if they do.
Mastodon themselves have put out a post outlining how this will affect them (it won’t) and how EEE is not a threat. If Meta does eventually opt out of ActivityPub then cool. It’s not like that’s why Mastodon users were there in the first place.
Mastodon the non-profit is all but compromised.
The guy in charge is essentially in cahoots with Meta and is under an NDA from them.
It doesn’t take more than 2 seconds of thinking to see how empty the words are that Mastodon is not at risk.
3 and 5 will happen in a cascading manner, the more people switch to Threads, the more others will also want to switch.
Number 3 will be difficult since most of the users moving are moving to get away from Meta. I find it hard to believe they'd just jump back into that ecosystem.
A lot of people aren't really ideologically opposed to Meta, they're just on Mastodon since it's there's less friction to use it than Twitter (see rise of Bluesky). Threads will "fix" a lot of issues people have with Mastodon (CW, no algorithm, inability to advertise, instances moving/going under) and they'll move without thinking anything of it since they can still access all of their Mastodon content
Of course the move back isn't going to be as easy, I doubt Meta is going to implement robust account migration, and then the easier choice is to stay on Threads. This is also ignoring the ~~incompatibilities~~ improvements to ActivityPub that Meta will introduce later on in Meta's lifespan, which will be poorly documented and rapidly changing if they open it up at all
Even if many Mastodon users don't switch immediately, this is enough to hamper the long term growth/health of the platform