As trade war escalates, economists bet on China resilience : worldnews

[–] Cowbee@lemmy.ml 19 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (1 children)

Kinda hard to argue against a country that consistently focuses on increasing the development of their productive forces. Tarrifs in the US are a way to protect dying industries from competition with more productive and efficient countries. The only way out for the US is re-industrialization, either through strong federal expansions a la FDR with some type of mega Green New Deal, or replacing the system with Socialism (at which point relations with China would likely cool down).

Social Democracy, however, would only delay the inevitable.

[–] eldavi@lemmy.ml 13 points 1 day ago (3 children)

you forgot the third option: military and/or financial intervention, forcing other countries to stop trading with china or face consequences like regime change; political instability; economic destruction; etc.

the mindset of american "patriots" since the cold war when it came to a nuclear holocaust was that if 4 russians are still alive after the nuclear missile stopped falling and there were 5 americans left alive, then we've won; that mindset is still alive, well and in charge right now.

[–] Xanza@lemm.ee 6 points 22 hours ago (2 children)

forcing other countries to stop trading with china

This is not a war the US could or would win.

[–] mlg@lemmy.world 1 points 12 hours ago

Yeah but they're fully content in simply delaying the inevitable as much as they can.

China by itself is only really behind in microchip litho fabs which is probably the most advanced and complicated tech humanity has created. What they truly lack is currency stability backing for trade.

For the time being, BRICS will just be a stepping stone because USD still has an iron grip on the global economy. China is playing the long game by letting it slip away slowly via loans and foreign investments to replace stuff like IMF loans. Any huge action to strip USD now would result in country heads getting magically arrested or assassinated overnight (cough Pakistan cough).

The US knows it can't keep up the control for long, yet their solution is to essentially pretend China will never catch up.

[–] eldavi@lemmy.ml 6 points 21 hours ago (1 children)

that's never stopped us before and the proof is in the pudding with vietnam, iraq & afghanistan.

[–] Xanza@lemm.ee 3 points 17 hours ago

I mean, I find it hard to argue with that. It's a pretty devastating argument. lol

[–] Cowbee@lemmy.ml 11 points 1 day ago (2 children)

Even if the US doubles down on millitary action, and commits, that isn't a way out. The US has no other manufacturing overseas or domestically that can keep up with its consumption, it needs to re-industrialize regardless.

[–] droplet6585@lemmy.ml 8 points 1 day ago (1 children)

re-industrialize

The US economy is too based on rent seeking for that to happen without a system disintegrating crash.

That is, maybe some polity occupying the territories formerly known as the United States could do it.

Which might be something motivating this "network state" bullshit.

[–] Cowbee@lemmy.ml 11 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Hence why I said it would need essentially a mega-FDR admin or Socialism to achieve, and the mega-FDR admin would merely be a delay of crashing.

[–] freagle@lemmygrad.ml 4 points 1 day ago (2 children)

This is still a financial assessment, not a real one. There aren't enough people who know how to architect, build, design, deploy, and operate the kinds of factories America would need. It would take 30 years minimum to even get to place of approaching where China was 20 years ago. By 2055, China will be so far ahead it's ludicrous.

And that's just the US trying to play catch up. China dominates academic research in high tech. The US would take at least 30 years to rebuild its university system to produce enough research and innovation that it could compete in the next century's high tech arena.

And the US's public schooling system doesn't have what it needs to produce workers for that economy. Another multi-decade project.

And all of that doesn't even touch the infrastructure problem. Transit just for employees is untenable for what would need to be done due to suburban sprawl and lack of public transit. But the rail, the roads, and the bridges aren't in good enough repair to handle reindustrialization. And neither is the power grid, the water system, nor waste management. China is so far ahead on all of these aspects of infrastructure, it would take 30 years and about 4 New Deals worth of investment to just be able to compete with China of 2015.

There's no way. The US is well and fully cooked.

[–] Cowbee@lemmy.ml 5 points 1 day ago (1 children)

For what it's worth, I agree, hence why I said it would delay. The US's only real hope for the future is Socialist revolution and building ties with the PRC so they help build up the US's real productive forces.

[–] freagle@lemmygrad.ml 4 points 21 hours ago (1 children)

PRC will never help the USA build up industry because the USA is a criminal settler colony. China will help whatever state emerges from the ashes of the USA rebuild after decolonization.

[–] Cowbee@lemmy.ml 2 points 20 hours ago

That's more what I was talking about.

[–] Sodium_nitride@lemmygrad.ml 4 points 1 day ago (2 children)

Not really. In the scenario of the US no longer being the world empire, I don't see why the US couldn't enlist help from other countries to re-industrialize. It could rebuild industrial capacity and educational capacity in parallel if say, it imported capital from China. You could drastically cut down rebuilding times with a planned economy.

[–] freagle@lemmygrad.ml 3 points 21 hours ago (1 children)

What other countries? England? Germany? France? The industrial center has moved to China. The only country that could help would be China. And China is not going to help the USA build up the industrial capacity of a genocidal settler colony that will use that industrial capital to produce weapons.

No, it's not realistic to assume that anyone is going to come and just help America. When America is no longer the world empire, the process of decolonization will eliminate this particular state and replace it with something unrecognizable. It won't be called America, it won't be Eurocentric, it won't be trying to compete in world markets. It will be dismantled and gone.

[–] Sodium_nitride@lemmygrad.ml 4 points 21 hours ago

What other countries? England? Germany? France? The industrial center has moved to China.

There are plenty of other countries with decent levels of industrial manufacturing in the global south. India, Brazil, Russia, Vietnam come immediately to mind. But that's besides the point, since by the time that the US collapses, more global south countries will join the ranks of moderately/highly industrialized countries.

It won’t be called America

Well, uh, the thing that comes after America would be helped by the rest of the world. America would be gone, but the land and the people won't be.

[–] Cowbee@lemmy.ml 4 points 1 day ago

100%, and is the most optimistic path within the realm of possibility.

[–] eldavi@lemmy.ml 2 points 1 day ago (1 children)

the posthumously beloved mexican dictator, porfirio diaz, proved that the military alone wasn't sufficient when he instituted his successful "bread or stick" policy; i forsee the american military being that stick and the financial inducement as the bread, luring other countries away from continuing to trade with china on mutually favorable terms.

you're 100% right in the end since there's a time limit; but unlike diaz, the american pockets are practically infinitely deep and our military is absurdly large and well placed in our equally absurdly large number of bases all around the world; along with a large enough desperate population that will serve as cannon fodder for that military.

[–] Cowbee@lemmy.ml 9 points 1 day ago

I'm more of the mindset that the US, at this point, is a Paper Tiger. It has strength to project, but not an industrial base to maintain it.

[–] Viri4thus@feddit.org -1 points 1 day ago (1 children)

Either Trump is a Russian puppet or the Russian annihilation via nukes, make up your mind.

[–] eldavi@lemmy.ml 11 points 1 day ago

i'm convinced that the russian puppet thing is american liberal notion and i don't ascribe to it; it think he's just a ordinary american conservative who aligns politically with russian conservatism.

[–] Sodium_nitride@lemmygrad.ml 7 points 1 day ago (1 children)

In order to further safeguard itself, Xu expects China to provide financial subsidies and tax breaks to the tariff-hit agriculture and manufacturing sectors.

Really hope this doesn't happen. There is no need for the Chinese to maintain such an extreme trade imbalance anymore. They shouldn't be wasting their resources to make exploitation by the imperialists (chronic net drain of resources from China to imperial core) easier.

[–] rmrf@lemmy.ml 1 points 5 hours ago (1 children)

My thoughts on the same quote FTA:

As I understand it, I agree with your concern that China probably shouldn't gain anymore strength in trade than they possess already, because they'll eventually pull the same garbage the U.S. does today, almost certainly. However, the poetic justice of defeating tariffs through public investment is a little bit of a consolation prize, as least ideologically.

I'm not firm in my stance so if you disagree or think I'm missing something, please feel free to discuss with earnest :)

[–] Sodium_nitride@lemmygrad.ml 1 points 4 hours ago

I think the real poetic justice would be for china to defeat the imperialists's strategy of distorting world markets to their benefit by resisting such distortions. Let the imperialists ruin the foundations of their own power. The capitalists will subvert market forces while socialists master them.

[–] ShinkanTrain@lemmy.ml 3 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

If a casino puts up a sign saying they're working on rigging every game in favor of the mobsters and pimps who know the owner and hired a guy to throw shit at the ceiling, I wouldn't be going there either.

[–] Joncash2@lemmy.ml -2 points 1 day ago (2 children)

China: I will do nothing and the world will fall to its knees before me.

[–] droplet6585@lemmy.ml 15 points 1 day ago (1 children)

They're doing quite a bit- just not much dick waving nonsense.

[–] Joncash2@lemmy.ml 1 points 23 hours ago* (last edited 23 hours ago)

I meant on a geopolitics level. China really doesn't play the geopolitics games. They pretty much just do what they think is right for the nation (right or wrong) and tells everyone else to take care of their own shit. Today, this plan of doing nothing looks to be very successful.

*Edit: Obviously internally they're doing a shit ton of stuff for their nation and their people. But externally, not so much.

[–] Sodium_nitride@lemmygrad.ml 11 points 1 day ago (1 children)

The whole reason why they are winning is precisely because they are not trying to get other countries to bow before them.

[–] Joncash2@lemmy.ml 1 points 23 hours ago

Or really paying attention to other nations as well. In fairness, they literally said that's what they plan to do. Which lead people to say China only cares about China. Which is true. The question becomes why SHOULD China care about the internal politics of other nations?

World News

Rules: