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I don't think it's going to happen over any single event. I think Federated platforms will remain small scale but very active, and that's all they have to do as mainstream social medias spring up, monetize, and collapse, over and over and over again.
Then one day in the future, the latest generation of cool kids will just realize that it's way cooler to be on the Federated platforms than it is to be on the mainstream sites.
I wouldn't say it would take more than 20 years. People are already annoyed with how much social media they have to move between, as well as the data collecting and adverts they get.
It's that or if some of these bigger creators, stars or business' move across to the Fediverse as their way of communication, then that would increase the user base.
When they killed Reddit Sync, I was done. As for X or whatever they call it now, hopefully people will see what it's become, and soon leave?
One can dream haha.
It's a similar dream I have. People need to jump ship and go towards the Alternatives.
Agreed. Although this is enough "social media" for me.
Edit:
Twitter/Reddit banning all NSFW
Twitter/Reddit banning piracy discussion
I know people that use Reddit & Twitter purely for their NSFW content, So I don't think taking away Fediverse NSFW content would work for those types of people.