Economics

https://archive.is/H4deh

cross-posted from: https://hexbear.net/post/2254791

@thelastaxolotl@hexbear.net

cross-posted from: https://lemmygrad.ml/post/4149811

Interesting video.

Thoughts?

It's only 13 minutes long.

So many of us are caught in the same trap, chasing an ideal of productivity that seems to always be just out of reach.

We wear our busyness like a badge of honour as if being constantly stressed and overworked is something to be proud of.

We live in a world that worships at the altar of productivity. From the moment we wake up to the sound of our alarm clocks, to the final emails we send before collapsing into bed, we are caught in an endless cycle of tasks, deadlines, and expectations.

We are told that success means doing more, achieving more, and being more efficient. But this shitty sidequest, this hamster wheel, this relentless pursuit of productivity is making us less human. It’s making us less happy. And it’s making us less…well, us.

As interest rates have increased, mortgage payments, car payments, and other credit payments are now more expensive. This rise in everyday expenses has significantly affected consumer sentiment about the economy.

Economists have traditionally looked to unemployment and inflation rates to gauge consumer sentiment, but despite low unemployment and declining inflation, consumer sentiment remains subdued.

In the past, mortgage costs were included in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), as were car payments prior to 1998. However, modern price indexes no longer factor in borrowing costs. This oversight has resulted in a misrepresentation of the full impact of rising interest rates on consumer well-being, particularly when interest rates spiked last year.

This study demonstrates that the variation in the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment cannot be fully explained by official inflation and unemployment rates. Instead, it has historically shown a strong correlation with proxies for borrowing costs.

The survey's underlying questions also reveal that consumer concerns about borrowing costs have reached unprecedented levels, surpassed only by the era of Paul Volcker.

To address this discrepancy, alternative CPI measures have been developed that explicitly factor in borrowing costs. For instance, the CPI no longer just excludes mortgage costs but also personal interest payments, which increased by more than 50% in 2023.

By reconstructing the CPI of Okun's era, where inflation peaked at around 18% last year, we can account for 70% of the gap in consumer sentiment observed last year.

In conclusion, this study underscores the importance consumers attach to borrowing costs and highlights the potential for a significant improvement in consumer sentiment if interest rates were to decline.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/japanese-bank-trains-staff-novel-scenario-positive-interest-rates-2024-03-18/

As Japan nears an end to eight years of negative interest rates, a regional lender in Kyoto is offering e-learning to train up staff who have no experience lending money or collecting deposits in a positive interest rate environment.

One of the sessions, targeting roughly 3,300 Bank of Kyoto (5844.T), opens new tab employees, explains why interest rates are important, how the lending rate is set and how rising interest rates affect the bank's business and its clients.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/boj-wont-sway-japans-trillions-investment-abroad-2024-03-18/

Even as the Bank of Japan prepares for a pivotal change in monetary policy, analysts say much more will need to be done to materially shift the roughly $3 trillion of yen Japanese investors have parked in global bond markets and yen trades.

Japanese investors have invested trillions of yen overseas in their quest to earn anything better than the near-zero returns at home under the BOJ's decades-long effort to end deflation.

What a mess. :P

As the global fight over manufacturing share and exports heats up, with surplus economies doubling down on exports, and deficit economies discussing protectionist strategies, the policies of the largest global economies are in clear conflict. Are trade wars likely, how do they work, and can the global economy regain balance?

In early February, Mark Zuckerberg added $28 billion to his wealth in a matter of hours as Meta’s shares soared after the company announced its first dividend payout.

This follows a banner year for the Facebook founder, who saw his wealth surge 173% in 2023. Like Zuckerberg, many tech billionaires added huge sums to their wealth as the stock market rebounded.

This graphic, from Preyash Shah, shows the biggest winners and losers in billionaire wealth in 2023.