Rugby Union

Unlikely to be jailed, but could see some hefty community service and a big fine

I hated Cheika when he was the Wallabies coach and having ding dong battles with the ABs. But since he's coached around the place and learning a lot more about his story i've begun to find him a much more interesting and charming coach than I ever gave him credit for.

This is a great interview, well worth a listen and i'm so far barely half way through it.

I guess week 1 was really NZ v Japan last week, but somehow I don't think that really counts.

Ran out of puff at the end of the NPC so haven't been posting much, but lets have a thread to discuss this weekend's matches.

Should be a great clash at the weekend, hoping it's put away by half time and we see the bench then shine

Ever reliable Marler sticks his foot in it again ahead of tournament. Just ammo for the All Blacks here

A little build up to the End of year internationals for us. Personally I never rated curry, but I know a lot of English fans dol

This out of release window weekend has England vs Japan and Scotland vs Fiji for us. Scotland with a lot of exiles to be tested on depth, the all blacks with a quick turn around after playing in Japan last weekend, Fiji being tested financially as always, and England being tested by just playing the ABs. Should be juicy!

Not a fan personally, but let's see how it goes

That's 20 in a row for the Red Roses. The All Blacks managed "just" 18 in 2015/16

A great move for Glasgow here. I was just saying how bad pro teams in Scotland were at getting out there. Well here's an opportunity! URC champions are going to pump yet-to-find-a-win Edinburgh though

Super Rugby obviously has a bit of a weird structure now with only 11 teams after the Melbourne Rebels collapsed.

It got me thinking a bit about what NZR & ARU could change assuming no other countries are going to join, and one thing I wondered was whether New Zealand should deliberately weaken our Super franchises to help make the Australian ones more competitive & hopefully make their public a bit more interested (if they win more).

So I started to think about what the population spread was like around New Zealand and one thing that really sticks out is how bottom heavy our current distribution of clubs is. 1 million punters in the South Island get 2 franchises, but 4.5m odd North Islanders only get 3 + Moana Pasifika. Its actually a bit silly that the Highlanders still exist given the population shifts since the 90s.

Anyway, that made me wonder if it might be possible to in effect add a 6th New Zealand franchise - which including MP would make 7 based in New Zealand in total, so came up with this before & after table to show how its a much more equitable split. And then 7 NZ, 4 Aus & 1 Fiji gets us back to 12 Franchises and at least in NZ gets more games in front of more people.

• 1 Included with Auckland.
• 2 Includes Whanganui in the census data.
• 3 From 2026 I think the new stadium is supposed to be in use.
• 4 Includes Marlborough, same as the NPC Province
• 5 Moana Pasifika are currently, and for the forseeable future going to be playing most of their matches in New Zealand, neither Samoa nor Tonga have stadiums and infrastructure setup to host like Fiji Drua have.
• Population regions not included:
• • Gisborne 50k - because its quite remote from either Hurricanes or Chiefs
• • West Coast South Island 32k - because its remote from everywhere

• 6 I included Gisborne population in this one as with a franchise based in this part of the country they are a bit more included than they are with the Chiefs or Hurricanes.

Table:

Fixtures: 4/10:

• Northland v Otago

5/10:

• Manawatū v Counties-Manukau
• Southland v North Harbour
• Wellington v Hawke's Bay
• Canterbury v Waikato

6/10:

• Tasman v Taranaki
• Auckland v Bay of Plenty

Notes: Auckland managing to fail against Hawke's Bay on the Saturday didn't bode well for their effort to take the shield off Tasman, and sure enough they failed again so bar a miracle where they manage to beat BoP and the two worst teams pick up wins they're out. Ditto for Otago.

The drama in this round is basically down to how many bonus points North Harbour pick up against Southland, compared to Counties-Manukau against the Manawatū Turbos who are awful.

Beyond that there's still another couple of big games. Given recent form Hawke's Bay are unlikely to be much of a challenge for Wellington, but the Tasman v Taranaki game should determine who gets 2nd place and later that day Waikato & Canterbury are basically playing to determine which team they have to travel to for the quarter finals.

Didn't know about this tour. Irish depth is pretty legendary in the URC, so the resilt is not a surprise to me!

This is it final round. Early doors: NZ vs Aus. Followed by Arg vs SA. It's technically all on the line, but los Pumas still need a miracle. I'm hoping to catch at least a bit of both, this year's TRC has been the best in donkeys years!

Table:

Fixtures: 27/09:

• Counties-Manukau v Wellington

28/09:

• BoP v Northland
• Hawke's Bay v Auckland
• Otago v Tasman

29/09:

• North Harbour v Canterbury
• Southland v Waikato
• Taranaki v Manawatū

2/10:

• Tasman v Auckland

Predictions:

• Wellington 15+
• BoP 21+
• Hawke's Bay 1-^1^
• Tasman 12+
• North Harbour 6-
• Waikato 12+
• Taranaki 50+

1 - I don't know if Folau Fakatava is back from injury yet or not; he's been out the last two games and without him as a 2nd playmaker my Magpies have been dreadful. No ability to relieve pressure means two massive hidings in a row. This is a prediction from the heart, not the head :)

Notes:

Its now the second to last round, and mathematically probably only Manawatū are definitively outside of the top 8, but I think we can assume that Northland and Southland are also no chance given at best they can only be expecting to win 1/2.

Otago are also only likely to win 1 more match so there's the 4 wooden spooners confirmed and we only need to pick two more teams to stay or slip out of the top 8.

Auckland have had a terrible season, but have 3 games in hand, so could pick up another 15 points, except they are playing Hawke's Bay, Tasman & BoP so are only likely to win 1, they should finish somewhere around 24 points.

North Harbour could beat Canterbury, and should beat Southland so are potentially looking at a points upside of 6-10 points, but Counties-Manukau have a guaranteed win against Manawatū so for Harbour to make it they really need to push for a win against the Rams.

Waikato should pick up another 4-5 points against Southland, even if they lose to Canterbury the following week so are probably safe.

So, weirdly the two other teams that are at some risk are Hawke's Bay & Canterbury, purely because neither of their next two games are guaranteed wins. The Rams are probably more likely to get a win given the Magpies woeful form since losing the Shield, but i'd say both of them are likely safe - even if the 'pies get the job done with bonus points rather than wins.

As for the top of the table, well with a game in hand, the high spending Tasman Makos are most likely to take 1st place again, followed by Wellington. Taranaki & BoP will both get wins this round, so if Auckland continue to suck and Tasman continue to be good, BoP will secure 3rd in the final game of the round-robin ahead of the playoffs.

Top Squidge about a top game, enjoy, and final games this weekend will be tasty

Cardiff, Munster, Leinster topping the table, with SA teams yet to play. Scottish and Italians teams all losing, but signs of hope for both Edinburgh and Benetton picking up both a try and losing bonus point. Considering Edinburgh last years' abysmal bonus points (and playing Leinster) I'm taking away a good showing. And Glasgow losing by point away to Ulster is far from a write off too, for either side!

A feast of rugby now from here on. I'm ready

• All Blacks v Wallabies
• Argentina v South Africa

Big news ahead of Bledisloe 1 is that Beauden Barrett is out with illness which sees Jordan move to 15, Reece comes on at 14 with Harry Plumber being named on the reserve bench.

That suggests he’s leapt ahead of Havili as the utility player - and in a way it actually does make a lot of sense. Jordan, JB & McKenzie give 3 options at 15, Plumber gives cover at 10 & 12, and ALB gives 12 & 13 cover with the option of Ioane heading to the wing too. Very versatile backs.

Table:

Fixtures:

20/09

• Hawke's Bay v Taranaki

21/09

• Northland v North Harbour
• Canterbury v Counties-Manukau
• Wellington v BoP

22/09

• Waikato v Tasman
• Auckland v Southland
• Manawatū v Otago

25/09

• Taranaki v North Harbour

Predictions:

• Hawke's Bay 3+ (going with my heart on this one bc after last weekend, the head says its going to be a struggle)
• North Harbour 14+
• Canterbury 10+
• Wellington 4+
• Tasman 10+
• Auckland 10+
• Otago 5+
• Taranaki 10+

Notes: Including this weekend there are 3 rounds left until the quarter-finals, the current top 4 should make the top 8 though all of them would be hoping for at least 1 win from the next 3 matches. Especially with Tasman & Taranaki having a game in hand, the former should be eyeing up top of the table.

Of course, they're a very good team, and clearly well resourced given the talent they have signed up so anything outside of top 4 would have been a fail. I'd say the top 7 are probably going to make the playoffs and its really just about whether North Harbour or Counties-Manukau squeek in last place.

NH Pro season has already kicked off in France, but for the rest of Europe: it's this Friday. I've got tickets for Edinburgh v Leinster and cannot wait! Champions cup joins the URC on Premier Sports; hooray for me, as I was never going to pay for TNT and Premier Sports

The only people that actually want this are the Welsh. The URC is working well, the prem needs to reign in the spending, and the Champions Cup needs to change to a format people understand. I'd go full knock out like a football cup personally. Sorted, no B&I league needed. But I do suspect NZ and Aus would like to see SA back in Super Rugby

Table:

Fixtures:

13/09:

• Southland v Canterbury

14/09:

• BoP v Taranaki
• North Harbour v Manawatū
• Waikato v Hawke's Bay

15/09:

• Counties-Manukau v Otago
• Tasman v Wellington
• Northland v Auckland

18/09:

• Manawatū v Southland

Predictions: Canterbury 9- BoP 5+ North Harbour 25+ Hawke's Bay 5- Otago 5- Wellington 3+ Auckland 9- Southland 5-

Notes: Well, after the absolute tragedy that befell Hawke's Bay in their Shield defense against the Mako, i'm hoping Wellington will visit Nelson and at least ensure that Tasman only get to celebrate for a week.

That should be a hell of a game with all of the squad ABs being released to play for their provinces and Wellington have been very good so far this season.

Last weekend saw a lot of movement in the bottom half of the table - with lots of drama as well. See if you can find clip of wet-ball-gate from the Battle of the Bridge. Absolute dastardly shithousery robbed North Harbour.

There's plenty of other good matches ahead this weekend too - BoP v Taranaki should settle who's in 4th place, and the mid-week home game for the Turbos could be their only chance of picking up a win this season.

I'm glad the tests are over for this weekend, hopefully the rugby pundits down here will pay some attention to the NPC in their shows. But likely it'll get a passing mention while they spend 45 minutes talking up the Wobblies and then at the end of the season they'll have another moan about how nobody cares about the NPC.

Dodson was bullish and unapologetic; Tom here talks of cash, but I'd prefer to see bridges being built and listening. It's no coincidence the amateur game is finding things tough, and the pathways aren't there. It's no surprise the money blackhole is there when the pro club sides are obvious money pits too. Funnily enough likely due to the pathways not being there so talent is bought in at bigger prices, this includes coaching staff which aren't helping with the community game either.

Re: money. Squeezing the fan for more will quickly start to backfire, any investment in the matchday experience is unlikely to offset its cost in significant terms and amount to little more than a distraction imo. Redeveloping Murrayfield into a 100k stadium the only real possibility of significant earning potential, but what a cost that will bring. Instead costs must come down, and that's the wage bill. I've no idea what a player earns, but between Edinburgh and Glasgow it must be over 100 full time professionals each including sales & marketing, coaching, squad, rehab/medical, scouts, managers, and others I'm sure. Glasgow still leasing their ground annually too, I'll bet GCC ask a pretty penny. And Scotland staff must be phenomenal too.

Alex here with a hard first couple of years

Can NZ get some revenge for last week? Will Australia show up and get their act together?

Table:

Fixtures: Friday 06/09: BoP v Manawatū

Saturday 07/09: Auckland v North Harbour Wellington v Southland Otago v Canterbury Hawke's Bay v Tasman (Ranfurly Shield)

Sunday 08/09: Taranaki v Waikato Counties-Manukau v Northland

Wednesday 11/09: Otago v Wellington

Notes: The biggest game this round is the Ranfurly Shield match on Saturday night, Tasman have never one it as the combined union of Marlborough/Nelson Bays so they'll be up for it; and of course Hawke's Bay will be desperate to keep their winning record. Whoever wins gets both the log o' wood and top of the table.

Other than that, there's a couple of other usually fierce derbies. The Battle of the Bridge on Satuurday, then Otago v Canterbury. Most of the rest of the matches aren't especially exciting.

My Predictions: BoP 24+ North Harbour 9- Wellington 18+ Otago 3- Hawke's Bay 3- Taranaki 9+ Northland 9- Wellington 6+

Both games Saturday 31st

South Africa vs New Zealand - 1700 SAST (UTC+2) - Johannesburg

Argentina vs Australia - 1900 ART (UTC-2) - La Plata

Predictions in the thread very welcomed