this post was submitted on 08 Aug 2024
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I don’t think a grassroots revolution will be taking place anytime soon, but this is aimed at the young people of Russia who are against the war. The old people there love Putin but I suspect they also aren’t watching YouTube.
The majority of the young people in Russia are genocidal imperialists. Support for extermination of other countries is of course higher in the older generations, but that doesn't change the fact that a solid majority of young (e.g. 18 to 29) are genocidal imperialists.
I understand that it might be reassuring to repeat platitudes like "young people of russia are against the war", but this is clearly not true.
Even the framing is suspect. What do you mean by "the war"; the full-scale invasion? In Ukraine, the war started in 2014 with annexation of Crimea and russian invasion of Donbas.
May I know where you found the info that a solid majority of young Russians (well, I think you only talk about those that did not already leave) supports the war?
A tiny % left and even among them there are many genocidal nationalists and fake opposition types.
Look up any research on the topic Russian Field, Levada, LSE List Experiment on support from the war among Russians.
I believe the general trend was that every age category had a majority and that at one point the 30-40 age group had slightly lower support for russian annexation and destruction of Ukrainian identity than the 18 -29 age group.
I don’t know those sources, but I fear those aren’t really representative
Maybe someone wants to dig, I have no time for that right now..
I look into those regularly. Those are credible sources that are often used by our scientists, but you have to be very careful with statistics during war periods.
What do you think the majority of people hear when asked, "Do you support actions of Russian military in Ukraine?". They hear, "Are you a traitor?" and answer accordingly. The majority (4 out of 5, I believe, if not more) refuse to answer at all. So, it's not exactly representative.
What we look at instead is questions that are not this direct. Such as "Do you think Russia should continue or start peace talks?". The majority (58%) is for peace talks. This number has increased since September 2022 by 10%, whilst the number of pro-war people decreased from 44% to 34%. Their quality also changed. For "absolutely should start peace talks" went from 21% (out of all votes) up to 26%, whilst for "absolutely should continue military actions" went from 29% down to 21%.
The longer things continue, the less support Russia's government has. That's what can be said for certain. The other conclusion we can derive is that war isn't popular.
Edit: Oh, and the youth, 67% of the youth (18-24) is for peace talks, 23% pro-war. 65% for ages 25-39, only 25% pro-war.
The vast majority of pro-war people are elderly. Can you guess who also watches the TV the most? And who the TV is controlled by?
For the full picture, I'll also add "they started it, so it's their responsibility, we had no choice in it" This phrase explains the whole mentality of Russians very well.
❤️
I hear that all the time, "but what about the challenges of polling under an autocracy?", as if they were the first one to think about it.
But if you show alternative methodologies that account for preference falsification and the estimates for preference falsification turn out to be low, you never hear back from people.
But this approach is understandable, people in the west have a very primitive understanding of russian culture and russian constantly code switch when pushing polemics for western audiences and when speaking in russian.
I can not 🤷🏻♀️that is why I asked, would be nice finding reputable sources that leak outta there
But "look at any research” does not imply good sources..
I mean I did suggest you go to Levada, Russian Field and LSE List Experiment research on the extent of russian support for the war.
All these research series are very easy to search for online. This is not secret or paywalled research.
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/20531680221108328