It is important to note that exceeding 1.5C in a single year is not equivalent to breaching the Paris Agreement limit. The goal is generally considered to refer to long-term warming – typically over two or three decades – rather than annual temperatures that include the short-term influence of natural fluctuations in the climate, such as El Niño.

Fucking lmao. So by the time the politicians are ready to say we’ve breached 1.5, we’ll all be dead. Good to know.

[–] InevitableSwing@hexbear.net 15 points 8 months ago (7 children)

typically over two or three decades

So if the average in 2050 is 1.49 (adjusted for natural fluctuations in the climate) - we're all good?

I assume if there's a massive volcanic eruption and the average is 1.7 - they'll [cough] cook the books and say there's no breach because the eruption was a natural fluctuation in the climate.

[–] Frank@hexbear.net 15 points 8 months ago (3 children)

No, it's just cope. 1.5 is nonesense. No one except China is taking action on global warming and things are so totally out of control we can't build models that predict the rate of acceleration, let alone the outcome.

[–] asg101@hexbear.net 7 points 8 months ago (2 children)

Asked a Scripps Institute of Oceanography lecturer over 30 years ago why methane from permafrost melting and the ensuing loop was not being factored in to their models, he said "we were focusing on other things". Guess it must have been too hard?

[–] BodyBySisyphus@hexbear.net 7 points 8 months ago

We just launched some satellites in the last couple of years that are capable of detecting methane plumes in the atmosphere. Before then people were just hauling equipment up there to measure the gasses as they were seeping out. It's difficult and imprecise work.

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