this post was submitted on 21 Nov 2024
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This means expected/promised emissions in 2030.
China is significantly overachieving on its emissions reductions. Likely that 2023 was their peak, but they only forecast 2030 as peak. Massive industrialization/manufacturing growth where technically, emissions should be transferred to consumer countries. They've helped other countries transition energy towards solar.
The US IRA with tariff protection is not likely to be a fast transition even if it is not undone. The US has some responsibility for Ukraine war and sanctions which is a gift to new oil and gas production, and lobby power, and tariffs are meant for oil profit benefits rather than being a global leader in renewables. Even before Trump, US is at record oil and gas production. Just because they have a goal, doesn't mean they will come anywhere close to that goal. Fantasy is no basis to hand awards/cudos out.
India has relaxed restrictions on Chinese imports, and last I heard, 2025 and 2026 is supposed to bring 150gw of domestic solar production.