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Stop emissions, stop warming: A climate reality check | Why future warming isn't as "locked in" as you might think
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this post was submitted on 02 Dec 2024
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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.
As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades:
How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world:
Recommended actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the near future:
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We know this. We know that if we stopped emitting, we could avoid the worst. We're not idiots. It's just that there's no reason to believe humans will reduce emissions to a significant enough extent.
Well I share some degree of pessimism but the future is inherently unpredictable. There may be a big change coming. We just have to keep fighting so that we’re ready to win when the opportunity arrives.
There are trends and the odds aren't exactly in our favour. But I generally agree. We're not certainly doomed. And it's important to keep fighting!
Hnmm, I'd argue we are.
Humans have and continue to reduce emissions. Just not in the US-dominated economic zones.
Actually, the US has cut emissions already. Just not to zero, which is where it needs to go.
Only via dodgy accounting, Defence arent counted, international flights, international shipping etc aren't counted at all. Then there is the entire issue that outsourced emsision are ignored, they will go up again if onshoring occurs. Outsourced emissons are worse becase of shipping which isn't counted at all.
The dodgy accounting is deliberate as Deiter Helm explains.
https://e360.yale.edu/features/forget_kyoto_putting_a_tax_on_carbon_consumption
We're doing noting to reduce emissions except LARPing. This isnt a tech problem, it's a behavioural one. Closing aiports, banning private cars, banning cruise ships, cutting the military in 1/2 are solutions ebwryhibg eise is just posturing.
Bit I've had this debate with you a decade ago on Reddit and since then the Keeling curve keeps rising an rising.
Yes, worldwide emissions are still rising — largely because of emissions growth outside the US.
And no, it's not a result of "dodgy accounting" — it's because of how electrical generation has changed, with a sharp drop in the use of coal.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/mapped-worlds-largest-co2-importers-exporters/
Even though domestic emissions have fallen 27% in the UK between 1990 and 2014, once CO2 imports from trade are considered this drops to only an 11% reduction. Similarly, a 9% increase in domestic US emissions since 1990 turns out to be a 17% increase when trade is included.
Including emissions outsourced to other countries provides a more complete picture of the true responsibility associated with a country’s actions. It also accounts for carbon transfers associated with the decline of the manufacturing sector in the developed world.