this post was submitted on 08 Mar 2025
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Russia won't totally encircle IMO. They don't want to have to manage the imprisonment of 10,000 POWs.
What Russia has done in other regions is take control of the supply route via fire control and recon, denying AFU reinforcements and arms, whilst giving Ukrainian troops a high-attrition corridor to evacuate through.
That way, Russian troops don't need to take a bunch of prisoners but also don't enjoy superior numbers and supplies to any Ukrainian forces remaining in the pocket.
Against a larger enemy, one that poses an existential threat to Moscow, encirclement is worth the costs implied, just to disarm as many men in one operation as possible. But the general staff are likely very aware that it is "cheaper" to grind them down with pincer movement after pincer movement until the war is over.
On the other hand, encirclement of thousands of troops will be a huge bargaining chip in the negotiations with the US right now. It lets Russia drive the point home that they're winning and will not be making any compromises. That said, I expect we'll see a combination of allowing the cauldron to bleed out a bit, and then capturing the troops that choose to surrender. I don't really see the logistics of imprisoning 10k POWs would be a problem given the scale of the war. Russia is now supplying an army of 1.5 million, 10k people is small potatoes in the grand scheme of things.