this post was submitted on 02 Jun 2023
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Xcom actually fudges the hit chances in the players favor unless you play on highest difficulty. Then it is just true values.
Anecdotally I can say what this guy is saying about Xcom 2 is correct. I just mentally shift the percentages down by about 20%. That said I never got past a certain level. There were some big enemies that no matter what I hit them with I couldn't scratch them.
Human brains are just fundamentally bad at handling probabilities. And Xcom can really punish you sometimes which just reinforces the intuition that it is unfair because you remember the negative events so much more clearly. Of course it is not the easiest game, but if you rely on luck in Xcom and don't have a backup plan for everything, then you will have a bad time.