this post was submitted on 06 Jul 2023
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it's good in the short term but realistically this news is a canary in the coal mine moment
we are decoupling our economies from the global system - increasing the chances for cold and/or hot war
The US is not decoupling from the global system, they're just lessening their dependence on their adversaries and countries vulnerable to their adversaries for key sectors. The US can only stay prosperous if they remain a central player in the global economy and they know it.
Imagine you're Farmer Bob in a temperate region great for growing apples and I'm Farmer Fred in a tropical area ideal for bananas. We each like bananas and apples, so tried growing both fruits, each of us harvesting 12 of our specialty and 6 of the other, making a total output of 36 fruits.
But then, we learned about the power of trade. We focused on what our lands did best: I harvested 24 bananas, you 24 apples. We swapped half our produce, and like magic - We both had 12 bananas and 12 apples each, totaling 48 fruits, a 25% increase just from trade.
But what if we stopped trading due to trust issues? We'd revert to the less efficient system, losing out on the additional produce.
Now, think of this on a global scale. When countries specialize and trade, we all gain. But as governments decouple from global trade, they're choosing to lose these benefits, making economies less efficient. It's a dangerous path where everyone ends up poorer.
And for our governments to deliberately choose a path that makes us all poorer - that means there's an unchecked growing tension. It's almost palpable. We're already living through a Gilded Age nearly a century after the last one... what happened after the Gilded Age?
Call me a doomer but this is alarming news, even if understandable from a national security perspective
It may make the economy less efficient on paper, but that doesn’t take in to account the external costs of trade. In return for cheap products, we gave up a strong manufacturing career base and replaced it with low quality service industry jobs which pay less overall. It’s one of the factors that’s led to wage stagnation, which is WAY more damaging than more costly products.
That’s not even to mention the environmental costs of shipping. The literal tons of heavy fuel oil that are burned to get the bananas from Farmer Fred are now causing sea level rise and changing weather patterns, which makes both Bob and Fred lose in the end.
Whatever the costs for shipping are are outweighed by the gain in efficiency. Realistically we're not growing bananas or apples as the main economic output. Complicated modern products like computer chips have a million little steps on the supply chain. Spending even 1% or 2% more resources to produce these at a global scale we're talking much more than shipping costs.
If you care about environmental costs, you should support free trade.
Also, you have a warped perception of manufacturing vs service jobs. Service jobs are the mark of an industrialized and modern economy for a reason.
I would rather work as a sales rep for a solar company, or a clerk for an underground construction company, or an accountant or lawyer or doctor or IT guy a million times over before I work on an assembly line. And trust me, this is from someone who was born in a 3rd world country and has worked on an assembly line - now I work with computers.