this post was submitted on 07 Jul 2025
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For me, Russia is more likely heading back to Socialism rather than turning imperialist if you check the material conditions within the country and external. Some internal conditions mentioned in this post are the following:
the share of supporters of socialism has grown from 26 to 43%, while support for the capitalist model has fallen to 15%
Despite the fact that they only know the pioneers from the stories of the older generation, two-thirds of young people are in favor of their return.
For Russia to turn imperialist lots of conditions(happy paths if we use the programming meaning) have to happen before we even consider this a possibility. For me, it is harder to see these possibilities come true knowing that the better route of socialist development is a more favorable view for the common Russian citizen.
Also, let's be real here... If we have the time to only think in the worst possible scenarios, we should also give ourselves time to think in the other more realistic scenarios which is socialism returning to Russia.
It's more likely that Russia is heading in short term not to socialism but to something reminiscent of July Monarchy, where it remains capitalist, but allows significant concessions for socialism.
If we weigh correctly all of the internal and external conditions within Russia, the possibility tilts much more favorably to Russia returning to Socialism than to a reminiscent July Monarchy as you suggested. Capitalism by nature is unsustainable and a monarchy even more. Adding to that, comrades in Russia are working hard to raise the class consciousness of their people and we are seeing plenty of qualitative changes mounting up.
Anyway, Russians are more warm to the idea of returning to the USSR rather than a Tsarist regime. If people wanted a Tsarist(monarchist) regime again, we wouldn't have beautiful pictures like this one:
I'm not saying literal monarchy, but similar uneasy compromise with "accepting the revolution of the past" made by reactionaries to stave off a new revolution.
Without the material extraction or support of an imperialist country, it is downright impossible to achieve that compromise that you are speculating. Besides that, we have to add into the mix that the external AES countries are growing more and more prosperous and their youth are having active exchanges with the Russians.
Also, the revolutionary momentum in Russia is only getting hotter now that interactions with AES is consolidating and permeating in all of the russian working class.
It is possible, but it would not be long-lasting, and there is a high probability of a new revolution (just like historical July Monarchy, which lasted for 18 years).