this post was submitted on 20 Sep 2023
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So, and I’m sure I’m not alone in this, my EV (a Polestar 2) charged to 80% gets a theoretical 220’ish miles range (I’m basing this not on the EPA range, but the calculated range in the car based on my driving habits). Now I say theoretical because I’ve never tested it all the way with my largest trip since I’ve owned it being about 70 miles one way. My average “long” driving days are only 50 miles round trip, and an average day where we take the car out is only about 12 miles total in the day. I’ve had a single time where I haven’t charged in my garage at night (on a 110v nonetheless!) and that was the 70 mile road trip where I parked in a garage with a charger so figured I might as well.
Now I bring all this up because I know I’m not alone in this. Sure my driving doesn’t represent everyone but it’s also not singularly unique. Even if this car loses 10% of its range it’s not going to affect my use of it. I know everyone thinks that everyone else does daily long commutes and huge yearly road trips, but that is only a subset of the population (maybe it’s you! I don’t know). But this constant discounting of EVs because they don’t meet some bar for certain groups is disingenuous. They already meet the bar for vast groups of people, and if your daily usage is super high odds are there’s an EV out there that can meet it, even after a drop to 90% years down the road.
Here is the problem with your argument.
In a rather short time, EV's won't be a choice. Depending upon the state or country one lives in, a whole ton of places are setting 2030 or 2035 with when the sale of new ICE vehicles will be prohibited. And on top of that, almost all car makers have stated that they will end their ICE production around that time as well. OK, so you admit that not everyone has the same commute. On top of that, not everyone has a garage. Or even a parking space. Some live an hour away from civilization. Those groups individually might be a small percent of vehicle buyers, but together, they represent a fairly significant number of consumers. But if you outright ban the sale of EVs altogether, then what are those people going to do? You are claiming that even with a 10% drop you'll be OK, but even with your full total range when new, it won't work with some people's lifestyles and living situations.
You seem to be trying to lump all problems into a single one-size-fits-all solution. So let's address things one at a time instead.
If you drive more than my car's range can handle in a day, don't buy the same car as me. There are EVs with much higher ranges, or quicker charge times, and many other variables. There's very likely one that has the range a given person needs (cost we'll leave as a distinct other issue, but only because by the time ICE vehicles aren't for sale any more the much higher ranges on EVs will also be much more affordable).
If you live an hour away from civilization, then unless you also have no electricity (in which case, EVs are not for you... but as others have said, just keep the ICE vehicle you have, there'll be a used market for decades), those folks are going to have an outlet or be able to install an outlet to do charging on. The "hour away from everyone else on the planet" people are not the same people as the "no garage, not even a parking space" people.
If you live in a city (no garage or parking space, that likely means a urban environment), you're going to have chargers you can swing by once a week to fast charge (city people rarely have the long commutes that rural folk have), heck in my own urban environment we have some cheap ($2/hr) city owned parking lots nearby that have fast chargers for free as part of parking there.
By 2030, you'll have a robust market of used EVs, and likely a few on that market that are both much more affordable, and can check off the boxes needed for a given individual. Will every EV work for every person? No of course not, but that's not true of ICE vehicles either.
What do you think is going to happen to the hundreds of thousands of existing internal combustion cars? If you really need one, I'm sure there will be one on the used market that's acceptable.
Beyond that though, a lot can and should happen in 7-12 years. The technology should advance (it already has been pretty rapidly), gas cars have had a century to advance. The goal is currently 600+ miles on a charge and potentially as low as a 10 minute charge time from what I've seen with the major milestones anticipated at 2026 and 2028.
These dates also aren't set in stone... people act like we can't just say "okay okay, we're not ready yet, you can make more ICE cars"
Regardless of that, we're still very much heading towards running out of gas (I have no idea why people stopped talking about that). We're also still very much heading towards a climate crisis. We need a change, we're not doing it for the fun of it.
It will have real benefits when it's done with. Electric is more stable price wise, that will have a stabilizing effect across the economy. It will also prevent us from needing to have another oil war. It will also further clean up the air which will help many breathe better and reduce chronic conditions.
If car manufacturers can't get battery electric working, the next thing will probably be a push for hydrogen, but ultimately we'll see. Battery swappable car designs are another idea that's been floated, and that's not a bad idea really (it flat out removes the concern of battery packs going bad because you just go to the "gas station" and get a different pack).