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Chinese child suicide rates jumping ten percent annually since 2010 (fortune.com)

submitted 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago) by Varyk@sh.itjust.works to c/worldnews@lemmy.ml

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[-] peter@feddit.uk 23 points 9 months ago

If it jumped 10% annually since 2010 wouldn't that make it 130% or am I bad at maths

[-] RisingSwell@lemmy.world 49 points 9 months ago

That's not how this kind of thing works, and it depends on where it starts. If it's 1% of children attempting suicide, which would be a huge amount, a 10% increase is 1.1%, and then for the next year a 10% increase makes it 1.21%, and then 1.33%. This is why when something increases your risk of something by say, 50%, it might mean absolutely nothing if the initial odds are 1 in a billion. 1.5 in a billion isn't really any more likely.

[-] GroteStreet@aussie.zone 32 points 9 months ago

My neighbour was freaking out when she saw in the local newspaper that burglaries in our town had increased by 100%

I pointed out that we had 2 burglaries this year, compared to the 1 last year...

[-] FooBarrington@lemmy.world 9 points 9 months ago* (last edited 9 months ago)

The increase itself doesn't matter where it starts, 10% each year over 13 years will always be an increase of ~245%.

It also matters a lot to look at the relative change no matter the absolute amount, since it indicates a trend. Even if the chance for something terrible is 1 in a billion, a steady 10% increase every year should worry everyone, since there is a clear trend (and compounding increases get big faster than you'd expect).