this post was submitted on 05 Oct 2023
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I wrote up a long reply that failed to post, but the TL;DR is that's not really the right way to look at it.
The cost of home ownership is the interest part of payments less home ownership costs plus home value appreciation vs. rental cost, then factor in the intangible personal value of home ownership vs. renting.
70% of a home's value in interest could be a bargain compared to rent over 30 years.
Edit: I just did some napkin math on my situation, and we'd need to have housing and land prices drop by 20% over the next 30 years and a major maintenance item every 1-2 years for us to lose out vs. renting. There's no way that's possible on that long a timeframe. Even if there's a catastrophic 75% market downturn, it will easily recover over 30 years at below-historical-average gains.
My mortgage payment plus property taxes is less than the going rental rate for an equivalent 3br suite, and I bought last year.
The thing that convinced me is that my mortgage payment stays the same every year while everything else goes up with inflation, including my salary.
We'll see where we're at when it's time to renew in 4 years but the way things are going even if it costs me an extra $1000/month I'm still probably coming out ahead.
Rent can go up 10-15% in the same amount of time as that fixed mortgage. If there's no rent control, it can go up much more than that.