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"Play Boosters" announcement (magic.wizards.com)

submitted 11 months ago by Evu@mtgzone.com to c/mtg@mtgzone.com

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"The Set Booster and Draft Booster are being combined into a new type of booster we're calling the Play Booster."

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[–] ech@lemm.ee 5 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (5 children)

Considering about 33% of a set is rares, yeah, it is a big change. ~~Looking at draft, that's a 96% chance to open one more rare, and 83% chance to open two. If my math is right, that's 13 more rares in a pod on average.~~ (Don't math while waking up) The correct figure would be ~16 extra rares per pod.

[–] prodigalsorcerer@lemmy.ca 4 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (4 children)

I think it's just 8 extra rares/mythics per pod.

Assuming all the special guests are r/m, The List slot has 3.12% chance of being a rare.

About 1/7 (14.3%) foils is r/m.

We don't know the distribution of rarity in the wildcard slot, but I'll use the same distribution as the foils for a reasonable estimate.

That makes (3.12+14.3+14.3 ~=) 32 extra rares per 100 packs, or just under 8 per 24 packs.

[–] ech@lemm.ee 4 points 11 months ago (3 children)

Regarding the specific chances, considering they detailed the odds for the List spot but not the wildcards, I think it's more reasonable to assume chances are equal to the percentage of rares in a given set, which can vary dramatically, but I believe it's usually about 33%.

As for the math, I definitely went about it wrong (I was using 1-p^n^ for some reason, and I also did that wrong somehow). The right result would be closer to 16 rares per pod.

[–] prodigalsorcerer@lemmy.ca 4 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago) (1 children)

Sorry for the double post, but I thought you might be interested to see this.

MaRo has posted the odds. So looks like 8.88 packs per draft will have 2 rares, 0.96 packs per draft will have 3 rares, and <0.24 packs per draft will have 4 rares, for resulting in roughly (8.88 + 0.96*2 + 0.24*3 =) 11.52 extra rares per draft.

[–] ech@lemm.ee 3 points 11 months ago* (last edited 11 months ago)

All good! Thanks for sharing. Ultimately still too much variation, imo.

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