this post was submitted on 16 Oct 2023
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Oh gods the hit probability was just such an irritating mechanism; you could practically have your gun's muzzle on an alien's forehead and still manage to miss several times with 80% chance to hit.
People say that's just the true odds but I really don't think that's the case. Even if I use the c++ old and flawed Rand function, rolling 2d10 almost always gives me at least one roll above 2. So in 2 shots at least one should hit. Even in the newest xcom I remember rolling 6 shots with 90% and missing all of them. 8 feel like XCOM has something broken or influencing it outside of percentage.
Yeah those odds-beating misses at least felt like they happened way too often, and I'm pretty sure the percentage really wasn't a "raw" probability but that there was some other fuckery also involved.
Sure, it's definitely statistically possible to miss a few 90% shots in a row, but eg. there's a 0.0001% chance of missing 6 in a row at 90% – and it's not like shit like that only happened once on a blue moon in XCOM
The internet is also littered with these types of studies: https://gamefaqs.gamespot.com/boards/191291-xcom-2/79589841 where someone went through and calculated up some scores and hit well below the standard deviation for shots.
Where would be the fun w/o a missed shot from your shotgun when standing right next to the alien? ;-)