this post was submitted on 16 Oct 2023
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By then Android will have gone through 10 yearly API level updates.
Assuming no OS competitor appears (which I really hope it does) it'll probably last 5 years if you keep it in a good condition.
But if you actually use it daily like a normal phone, then probably much less.
Google will drop support quickly for the next lineup, and they probably won't even bother with any bugfixes after a year and half.