this post was submitted on 16 Jul 2023
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The offers were 5 years for all ABK games or 10 years for only COD. When you look at the pipeline of upcoming ABK games, what is even coming out in the next 5 years that would make up for 5 years of lost COD revenue? Plus, if the new consoles are really out in 2028 having COD not playable on the PS6 would be huge for the start of the generation. Sony probably made the right choice here
They’re not removing cod from PlayStation though. Doing so would essentially kill the franchise. Microsoft know this. Valve understand this, which is why they said they don’t need to sign a contract.
The reality is that Sony went from having cod forever + all other ABK games for 5 years, to just cod.
Infinity ward have a brand new action rpg game coming out, along with a survival game from blizzard. Also 5 years is a long time. They could easily pump out 2 titles per dev team in that time, especially from franchises with recent releases like Tony Hawk, crash bandicoot, Spyro, etc.
We know Sony made the wrong choice here because of the emails Jim Ryan sent. They wanted guaranteed all ABK games in perpetuity. They turned down this exact cod-only deal months ago. Sony signed this deal out of desperation because the ftc failed to protect their market dominance (thankfully and rightly so). It wasn’t a coincidence they signed the deal the day after the ftc lost. They lost all bargaining power so got the bare minimum.
10 years is a long time. The landscape could definitely change where they don't put COD on Playstation after that. Microsoft only started making those offers after there was regulatory scrutiny. I would bet a lot of money there is no new COD on Playstation in 10 years and 1 day.
And nobody is going to point to Spyro, Crash, or Tony Hawk being exclusive as a big loss for Playstation. Blizzard already released Diablo 4. Overwatch 2 is already out. Warcraft/Starcraft arent on consoles. Basically the rest of Activision is just pumping out COD. No word on that Infinity Ward game since last year, which was just an article about hiring for a position and no details on an actual game. Assuming Activision actually revived an old IP theyre sitting on or made a new one it would likely take 5+ years of dev time, at which point Sony would miss out on it anyway with a 5 year deal
You don't spend $70bil on a company to then cut off the main revenue source of said company. All the evidence you need to see how microsoft will handle COD is how Microsoft have handled Minecraft. CODs appeal and success is because of its availability and its player base. The COD player base on PS is significantly bigger than it is on Xbox. They make significantly more money on COD on PS than they do on Xbox. They're not cutting that off.
What they will do is try to bring people from PS to Xbox via game pass and having COD available on it day 1. At absolute best they might be able to snag 20% of PS players to convert to xbox by doing this.
Funny because it was a big deal when the new Crash game was exclusive to Playstation. Sony knew it was a big deal because they not only paid for exclusivity, but they paid to have Activision not be allowed to talk about the exclusivity other than it being playstation exclusive, despite us now knowing that it was only a timed exclusive. Sony clearly saw a big deal in it.
A new Tony Hawk game could be a huge seller too. They were once one of the biggest sports franchise games around, with massive critical acclaim and sales. There's also the possibility of a Guitar Hero comeback, another franchise that took the world by storm.
Sony can miss out on a lot of ABK games in the next 5 years. Most games don't take 5 years to make.