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this post was submitted on 27 Dec 2023
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There are few groups I think they could pull off such a stunt and would even want to. Nation state actors from the US such as CIA/NSA, or China, like the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. They have a many other gov sectors with very talented APT groups. I'd bring up that NK nation state actors are also very talented, but they've been recently aligned with Russia. Perhaps their loyalty to the CCP is stronger than their current Russian ties.
Skill is certainly one evaluation parameter and Fin7, JokerStash, Carbanak fit that bill but that is not their MO. Target, motive, opportunity -> Embassy Employees/Diplomats -> Nation-State or Intergovernmental Group (like 5/9/14 eyes) as eval combined with skill rating, @95% confidence.