this post was submitted on 24 Jan 2024
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Afaik that passenger manifest was revealed to be fake. Telegram going to Telegram, so YMMV.
Current theory is that Russians told Ukrainian general staff that there was going to be a prisoner exchange that would be delivered by IL-76, but miscommunication led to nobody on the ground getting the news. I don't believe Ukrainian AD was acting out of malice.
We know a prisoner exchange was supposed to happen at the border near Belgorod, we know IL-76s were used to transport POWs in the past, and we also know Ukraine shot down the IL-76. We also know Russia doesn't usually operate IL-76 so close to the Ukrainian AD umbrella, so...
Yeah, Telegram is an interesting place for that sweet, sweet hit of confirmation bias dopamine.