this post was submitted on 18 Apr 2024
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That's a great question. Who knows what? Who knows who knows what? Who knows who knows who knows what?
That's the game.
So the Chinese know where the planes are. The Americans don't know the Chinese know. The Chinese know the Americans don't know.
The Chinese publish. Now, the Americans know the Chinese know where the planes are and the Chinese know the Americans know.
This is preferrable to believing the Americans don't know if they do know. It changes the behavior of military officers.
It is also preferable for the Americans to know as a deterrent against a first strike.
The big question is, if this advantage is worth it, then what else do the Chinese know that the Americans don't know they know?
A bluff so easily called is not a bluff at all