this post was submitted on 02 Jun 2024
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Hard drives can fail. A strong magnetic field could scramble the data on the platters. HDD's are pretty reliable usually though. Biggest concern with external HDDs would be fall damage.
I would say to check random files from time to time and you should be fine. Every 2 or 3 years, replace your backup drive. A backup program like Borg could help detect if you have a problem with your files, but you lose a bit of the simplicity of your current rsync method.
Anything your truly worried about should follow the 3,2,1 standard. Minimum 3 copies, on 2 separate media types, with 1 copy offsite. That said your current setup is already better than 95% of the general population and probably 70% of the Fedi.