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this post was submitted on 27 Jun 2024
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I've never wanted to be wrong about anything more than WW3...
But I keep seeing all these articles that make it really look like WW3 is right around the corner...
Like, the entire point of SSBNs is to hide and no one knows where they are. Popping up just to flex is not a good sign. It's trading the actual point of their existence (no one knows where our nukes are) for a show of force.
It's not a rational choice to do this, Russia knows we have SSBNs all over the globe, they don't need to actually see one and know where it is
I mean, when Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated, everyone didn’t immediately go “welp time to start up our World War”. Nor did that happen when Nazi Germany got rolling on Anschluss.
If WW3 starts, we’ll eventually determine some specific event that got it rolling irrevocably in that direction. Could be the annexation of Crimea in 2014, or the Ukraine invasion in 2022, or something in the future (PRC annexing Taiwan - or trying to and failing; North Korea finally pulling the trigger and trying to finish the Korean War; India and Pakistan finally coming to nuclear blows; any number of other things). Nobody will know until it’s already history.
Yeah I was surprised when I listened to hardcore history about it. It was like 4 weeks from the assassination to the declaration of war.
I feel like you’re missing the point of my comment
No, I'm not.