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Democrats consider the unthinkable: It’s time for Biden to go
(www.politico.com)
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this post was submitted on 28 Jun 2024
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I watched it all, and Biden did a much worse job than Trump did. Trump lied his way through the whole thing, but we expected that going in. I don't think Democrats expected Biden to look this feeble.
No, not many people are going to change their vote because of this. But the last few elections have been one with very close margins in a handful of states. It doesn't take that many people in certain zip codes to decide they can no longer support Biden to turn the election. They don't even have to turn to Trump, they can go third party or stay home.
I'm not a fan of replacing Biden this late in the process, if that happens for any reason other than Biden's health then it basically renders all the Primaries invalid, and puts party officials in a position to make the decision, not voters. And let's be fair: Democrats who were watching saw that Biden was actually able to make his points, and draw a clear distinction between his positions and his opponent. Nobody is saying that the substance of Biden's performance was wrong, they're all just upset over the optics of his performance, and his ability to attract those last few voters in PA and WI that he needs.
I recall thinking that Biden lost the first debate in 2020, also. He managed to come back then. We'll see about this time.
Remember, though, debates are not conclusively won or lost. It's all opinion-based. Lots of people like you said Biden did a terrible job. But do you know what I haven't seen any reports of? A response from "regular viewers" who say they will change their votes.
The closest thing we'll get to that is in the polls over the next few days, and the moving forward to the election.
But even then, the numbers don't have to move very much in order to make a difference. GA has 11 million people, and Biden won there last time by only 11k votes. Do you think a GA poll (much less a national poll) would pick up 11k people there changing their votes, or 22k people deciding to not vote at all (or vote for the brain worm guy instead)? That can all happen in the margins, outside of any ability for the rest of us to detect it.
I'm leery of polls these days. One thing I like about the Bulwark is they do a lot of focus groups, where you can hear from voters at a more detailed level, in their own words.
It's still not a great method, since its such a small sample size. But I think it's better than polls of poll-taking Americans.