https://todon.eu/@CrimethInc/112782702007709408
The Trump campaign aims to use today's shooting as a sort of Reichstag fire to incite his supporters to step up street violence while calling for more state repression targeting his enemies of choice.
The Biden campaign has already paused all outbound communications and withdrawn their television advertisements, ceding the entire field of narrative to Donald Trump, who will have no compunction about using his status as a victim to advance his efforts to victimize others.
One of the classic mechanics of totalitarianism is that protecting the safety of the leader becomes a justification for violence against large swathes of the population.
As centrists join the far right in paving the way for totalitarian rule under Trump, we have to organize to defend our communities. If you have been in denial about the challenges ahead of us, this should be a wake-up call to find each other and prepare for them.
Some notes:
almost no doubt: this will have a mobilizing effect for Trump supporters ("our great leader is being attacked", etc)
possibly: this will improve Trump's ratings among voters with no clear political preference (a big story where he's not the villain is what he needs)
pattern: historically, surviving an assassination attempt has improved a candidate's chances of getting elected; in the most recent example, Slovakia's prime minister Fico enjoyed a boost in ratings while in hospital after being seriously wounded
I don't blame Democrats for temporarily ceasing campaign advertisement. Two principles dictate this: "you don't kick a person who is already down" (Trump was incredibly lucky and isn't) and "you don't attack someone who has martyrdom effect". Generally, you wait until the dust settles. Democrats too will wait until the dust settles. They will also check the popularity ratings and decide how to proceed.
In my opinion, Democrats would strongly benefit from a younger candidate. I would advise getting someone under 55 to run. Among the wider population, not enough people understand that, as things are, the Democratic candidate is Kamala Harris, her name is just currently Joe Biden. :o
Overall, it seems that Trump has considerable chances of getting elected president. Preventing that will require exceptional effort and considerable luck. Only if the Democrats manage to paint a clear picture of what a Trump presidential term would bring about, and only if that picture causes their voters to show up and vote nearly without exception - only then will things turn out differently.
My personal view from Eastern Europe - contingency plans for a Trump presidency ceasing aid to Ukraine have a very high probability of occurrence now (estimated time: early 2025). Over here, everyone and their cat will researching cheap weapons systems to replace things that only the US can provide. I think that group will now include myself.