this post was submitted on 29 Jul 2024
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China and India working their differences out would be a tectonic shift in geopolitics.
Indeed. I saw that India is trying to position itself based on the possibility of stricter sanctions against China by becoming a trading partner that can sell Chinese goods on the market, thereby enriching itself. And to that I say, Deng couldn't have predicted just how awesome his strategy really was.
Haha, I was just watching this vid making a similar point with Hungary and Turkey where China can set up shop, and then export goods bypassing the sanctions regime. We also see this happening with resale of Russian oil to the west on a massive scale.
https://youtu.be/eQcTkt6WEOw
Ooh, the Russian oil resale angle is a new perspective on this. Once you figure out to do this for one commodity, it makes you can extend it to other commodities more readily. So in this interpretation, the Ukraine conflict and subsequent sanctions created the conditions for traditionally "non-aligned" economies to develop profit motive around obviating sanctions, creating the market forces required to subvert sanctions regimes almost overnight. Very interesting idea.
Absolutely, all the financial frameworks are now in place, political contacts, etc. Now all the countries that act as intermediaries between Russia and the west, can start offering the same kinds of services to China. I expect this will be a huge niche going forward given that even if the west does get serious about reindustrializing, it's going to take many decade to do so.
The other aspect of this scheme is that it perpetuates western dependence on the global south. As long as cheap goods can keep making their way in, it's very difficult for local businesses to compete within these niches. Ironically, it's the very strategy that the west has been using to keep other countries from developing. Now, it's being turned back on the west.
It's interesting because you'd think, given the nature of abstractions, that the USA would have established a new layer of abstraction to get ahead of this phenomenon (especially given how potent their financial sector has been). But instead it seems like we're hitting the end of the abstraction process and there's nothing left to do but deal with material reality. Maybe crypto was an attempt to level up to the next abstraction but it failed? It's curious.
The simple answer is that production of physical goods has been moved to China and other countries due to the dynamics of financial capitalism. These are the actual necessities that people need to live. You can't abstract over this stuff because these are material things that need to be produced. And the abstractions we see resulting from all the sanctions and tariffs that US imposes are these proxies that exist to create compliance with the letter of the law. You get shell companies, intermediary countries, etc. Ultimately, the goods have to make their way from where they're produced to the hands of the consumers in the west.
Yeah, but that's not my question. The history is that we did abstract over this stuff for the last 50 years and postmodernism would indicate that it is in theory possible to continue to abstract ad infinitum because symbols. The curious thing is that the material reality is coming to bear now, which either means there is a deterministic end to the abstraction or there is a contingent end to the abstraction. If contingent, we should be able to point to another possible abstraction that was failed or to a failure to continue developing abstractions faster than material reality could come to bear. I think the financial sector continued creating abstractions at a pretty rapid clip, which seems to indicate that maybe there's a deterministic end to the abstraction here. But also crypto is a failed abstraction and that could potentially point to a path towards further abstraction but execution was insufficiently thorough to prevent material conditions from breaking through.
I guess I am saying it's not enough for me to understand the immediate causes and I'm looking for larger analysis which likely won't arrive for another couple of decades (but I like speculating)
I'd argue that there's a deterministic end to the abstractions- things can only go so far. With each series of sanctions on the world's factory (China) and the majority of humanity, the forces in play to circumvent said sanctions only grow stronger (ie. the middlemen like Turkey, Hungary, Vietnam, India, Mexico, etc). Both economically, and in the very tangible sense that they are all happily industrializing thanks to the sanctions (thanks USA! 😂)- in other words, the sanctions are creating all sorts of little "Chinas" (if not generally anywhere near as based) which will act in their own interests, rather than being enslaved to the west.
Meanwhile, the sanctioned world (read: the majority of humanity) is developing, and in China and Russia's case in particular- have developed, beyond the material conditions and contradictions of the west (which western sanctions and warmongering have helped further motivate, for instance in Russia's case (once again, thanks USA for effectively neutering the oligarchs in Russia and pushing China fully to self-sufficiency in all fields 😂). And they're engaging, more and more, with each other, and with third parties (non-western nations not party to western unilateral sanctions and other tyranny); in win-win mutual development, in building up the industries and markets of the global south... (thanks USA 😂😂😂).
And at this point, in regards to the sanctions on China and Russia- well, the west thinks they're sanctioning China and Russia- and I suppose they are (to them it does hurt a bit, like an annoying mosquito or leech... which is what the west is). But these sanctions are, if anything, more so sanctions on the west themselves- on western consumers, and western industries- this is the result, not just of financialization and globalization, but of the contradiction that is the west's dependency on extracting and consuming from the rest of the world to begin with (of which financialization and offshoring simply set everything into overdrive).
And so, with each sanction, not only does the west strengthen what is essentially the (unintentional) bloc of sanctioned nations (and of nations who are well aware that they could be next on the sanctions list- ie. everybody), and not only do they prove to the rest of the world yet again why the west is entirely unreliable and untrustworthy, but the west actually makes... their own industries, even less competitive than before (lmao 😂), both by making the west even less cost-effective (thanks to middlemen and tariffs, etc), but also by opening the door for further financialization and the enshittification of what production does exist, as western corporations, with their industries in retreat such that their monopolies are receding, capitalize on and encourage the creation of captive markets, while receiving more and more subsidies and yet cutting more and more corners to simply maximize their profits in the imperial cores...
The abstraction can only go on so far, and I'd argue we're well at the end of it all. It will continue, up until things explode; but things are at a point where the only way to abstract further would require WW3- they would need to stop China and Russia's internal development, destroy or suppress the development of the entire global south, and crack the whip on the middlemen countries (both in regards to their circumventing sanctions, and their own development resulting from it- ie. killing off the domestic capital of the middlemen 😂 such that there will only be- not even capitalists, just plain goons occupying the middlemen, open imperialism once again). There's no space for (nor ability for) any meaningful carrot for the rest of the world, the development is too far gone 😄 , there's only the stick- the healthy, vibrant jungle has grown back, and no-one save for the genocidal "gardeners" want the return of the "garden..."
I guess I'm not entirely following what specifically you're referring to that we've abstracted. We've created all these sophisticated financial mechanism, but these are just arbitrary rules we create that are entirely decoupled from the material reality. When you cut through all that crap, it all comes down to supply and demand of physical goods. People want food, TVs, phones, stoves, and so on.
These have to be produced somewhere, then shipped and distributed to people who want them. No amount of financial games changes the fundamentals of the situation. The west having shipped out much of its industry to other countries, and having lost its educated workforce necessary to produce the goods it consumes has no choice but to continue importing these things from places like China. It's not a problem that can be solved by abstractions.
What I'm pointing at is financial abstractions, for sure, but inclusive of things like currency (an abstraction for material goods), ending the gold standard (an abstraction for currency), fractional reserve lending (an abstraction for money supply), securities (an abstraction for property), derivatives (stacked abstractions for securities), etc. The logic of postmodernism is that symbols can represent symbols ad infinitum, which would indicate that the hegemon should have an additional layer of abstraction available that accounts for the contradictions emerging and obviates it, but it seems like there isn't one readily available at this time and the contradictions are punching through the layers of abstraction.
It all comes down to material reality in the end though. The standard of living in the west didn't result from all these financial abstractions. It was built on colonialism and exploitation of the Global South. What the financial abstractions did was mediate how these resources were distributed, ensuring that the oligarchs got the lion's share of the plunder. However, the plundering itself is what the whole system is ultimately built on. Now that the empire is starting to lose control over the colonies, and it's becoming challenged economically, and militarily, all of a sudden the house of cards is starting to crumble.
The process of abstraction was merely an illusion. It works so long as the west possess the means to command the labor of other regions, which was accomplished by making their currencies the world reserve currencies (the dollar and euro together make up like 90% of international trade) and foreign direct investment.
The flaw of postmodern theory is that 1. All symbols exist in the real world and thus can never be separated from reality and real processes and 2. You can't eat symbols. Human life remains governed by material reality and not symbols.
That's an interesting proposal. I'm keen to read more along these lines. I'm a fan of Milikan's Beyond Concepts. Got any other recommended reading?
Maybe you should start with Louis althusser's work, like ideology and ideological state aparatuses
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:
Agreed, and the next (optimistic) step from there would be sorting out the mess in Pakistan and fixing India-Pakistan relations (if China/Russia could broker it with Iran and the Saudis, it's possible).
India, Russia, and China are as complimentary a trio as you can get (when you discard the colonial divide-and-conquer disputes the west loves to agitate). The three working together should be able to set India on the track to truly be a second China (an industrial, scientific, economic, etc giant) as its potential allows.
Indeed, the problems that India and Pakistan have aren't insurmountable, and as US loses influence over them there will be increasingly less reason to be hostile to each other. I completely agree that Russia and China are both acting as strong positive influences in that regard because they too want to see stability in the region.
Militancy is spiking in Indian occupied Kashmir and even overflowing to Jammu now. There are rumours that Pakistan has returned to it's original master for alms and they are making Pakistan ramp up militancy to destabilise CPEC/BRI projects in the region. That's the reason for the thaw, there's a new frontier opening up for both India and China. I highly doubt any similar thawing between Indian and Pakistan is possible in the near future. Or any future, for that matter, where the military establishment in Pakistan hasn't been decapitated.
Oh... well, shit. I knew of the circumstances with Imran Khan and the PTI (and Pakistan being an army with a country is nothing new), but I didn't know things were getting that bad. Hopefully it doesn't go full Ukraine...
Yeah, I'm pleasantly surprised. I wonder how the U.S would react to that though. Probably wouldn't be thrilled at losing a potential instrument against China, but the sanctions machine sure doesn't seem to work like it used to.
Amusingly, I suspect that US putting pressure on India over trade with Russia is precisely what drove in India to start realigning away from the west.
Same- capitalism is reverting back to its old (and "honest") roots. The west is basically cracking the whip and demanding the capitalists of the middlemen countries- like India, Mexico, Turkey, Hungary, etc... kill themselves and their capital, to lay themselves down as (what would also be largely ineffective) roadbumps in the way of the global south's (of which they are included) development...
The only thing the west has left, is violence. Same as always. They can install the worst sorts of cronies- blatant colonial governors like Milei, Marcos, and Zelensky- but even they are all on shaky ground; most of their people understand exactly what is going on, and at some point either the west is going to be wholly surpassed by the rest (sooner rather than later, though that'll still take a while- fingers crossed though, hopefully it'll be even sooner yet) or they're going to have to jump the gun and start WW3.
Yeah that is basically exactly what happened with Georgia, it's ruling party are libs but the West was pretty demanding that they straight up suicide bomb themselves into Russia, so they had to take anti-western measures.
Pretty much. It's pretty hilarious (if also terrifying, and sad)- western ~~diplomats~~ handlers are basically wandering across the world, looking for whoever's willing to sign themselves up to take the unenviable position as the "next Zelensky..." whoever's willing to take one for the team, with perhaps the possibility of getting a nice mansion in Miami or London at the end of it all... if they get out of their countries alive when it's all over (easier said than done, as the Ukrainization process also requires cultivating and arming all sorts of fascist maniacs like the Banderites as a support base for this sort of blatant self-destruction), and if the west decides they have enough use, rather than backstabbing them once they become an inconvenience...
They really have nothing better to offer. You can see it with the client-states, but you can also see it with their own domestic policies- they have nothing to offer their citizenry either (or rather, they do, but the contradictions are such that it's essentially impossible without a significant change to the system). Only the most hopelessly compromised of countries, with the most deluded and cartoonishly corrupt of regimes in power will sign up for this, and even then - with the example of Ukraine in particular, they'd also have to have at least a bit of a death wish to boot.
They act like a needy, abusive spouse on the world stage. No wonder Japan is looking for the door. I think it's impossible now for a lot of decision makers globally to internally sell closer political/economic relations with the US. Why bet on a losing horse?
I bet Ukraine debacle has really shaken a lot of US vassals. All of a sudden everyone can see that the emperor has no clothes.