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submitted 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago) by SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net to c/news@hexbear.net

Title is a reference to Resistance imagery about how Israeli soldiers will enter Gaza alive but leave it in coffins - the same is true for American soldiers in the Middle East if the regional war expands.

The image is of the Fattah-1 Iranian hypersonic ballistic missile, which its creators boast can overcome any missile defense system on the planet, has a range of 1400 kilometers (and thus Iran can strike Israel), and has a terminal impact velocity of Mach 13.


Dozens of American soldiers have been injured and 3 have been killed on a base in the Middle East. There has been confused reports about whether the attack was on Syrian territory or Jordan's - the Al-Tanf base is in Syria, but Tower-22 in Jordan is another base that helps supply Al-Tanf, and Tower-22 is the one that is alleged to have been hit. These is the first confirmed deaths of American troops since the conflict began, though it's not likely that this is actually the first deaths after hundreds of drone/missile strikes throughout the region on American bases, unless you think American soldiers are having extremely timely heart attacks just after a missile hits.

The attack is certainly impactful, though it does also have considerably symbolism. Courtesy of John Helmer:

The operational success of the strike for the attackers is strategic. Tower-22 is a logistics, supply, and rear guard post for the Al-Tanf base which US troops are operating thirty kilometres north across the border in Syria. The attack demonstrates that both Tower-22 and Al-Tanf, Jordan and Syria, are newly vulnerable to weapons which the US forces have failed to detect and neutralize. Just as significantly, the massive US airbase called Muwaffaq Salti, 230 kilometres west across Jordan, is also vulnerable now.

It indicates that Iran now possesses Russian expertise in countering American equipment:

“This is a significant accomplishment,” one of the sources said. “Was the bypassing of the US air defence system at Tower-22 pulled off with Russian assistance? US bases generally rely on the C-RAM [Counter Rocket, Artillery and Mortar] system. It was sent to Ukraine last year where the Russians have been learning to defeat it. What now of American EW [electronic warfare]? They’ve been doing a fair job of knocking drones down up to now. It seems a ‘coincidence’ that, not a week after the meetings in Moscow with Arabs and Iranians, we see this success. It’s a success the circumstances of which, we can be sure, Biden and Austin are not keen to advertise.”

I am putting my take on the table right now: I am 99% certain that the US won't attack Iran directly. I think we are still quite a while away from that being a possibility. Much more likely is that Iranian officials in Iraq or Syria will be hit by a retaliatory strike, as Israel has done recently. It is a significant escalation nonetheless. And it comes as Israel seems to be gearing up for a suicidal war with Hezbollah.


The Country of the Week is Iran! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.

Updates continue to be AWOL - but I am cooking something. Hopefully.

The bulletins site is here!
The RSS feed is here.
Last week's thread is here.

Israel-Palestine Conflict

If you have evidence of Israeli crimes and atrocities that you wish to preserve, there is a thread here in which to do so.

Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:

UNRWA daily-ish reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.

English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news (and has automated posting when the person running it goes to sleep).
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.

English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.

Various sources that are covering the Ukraine conflict are also covering the one in Palestine, like Rybar.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Sources:

Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful. Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[-] SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net 10 points 5 months ago

The updates are AWOL but I am cooking something, hopefully. I've also been trying to expand the literature below, so I (and others) can become true Geopolitics Understanders, though this will also take a little while too.


The Country of the Week is Iran!

As mentioned in the preamble, feel free to post or recommend any material related to Iran, whether from a thousand years ago or yesterday. You can post it anywhere in the thread, but you can also reply to this comment if you wish.

If you're feeling particularly ambitious and want homework, you could take on any or all of these questions (no reward, but I'll be very proud of you):

  • Who are the main political actors? Are they compradors, nationalists, international socialists, something else?
  • What are the most salient domestic political issues; those issues that repeatedly shape elections over the last 10, 20 years. Every country has its quirks that complicate analysis - for example, Brexit in the UK.
  • What is the country's history? You don't have to go back a thousand years if that's not relevant, and I'm counting "history" as basically anything that has happened over a year ago.
  • What factions exist, historically and currently? If there is an electoral system, what are the major parties and their demographic bases? Are there any minor parties with large amounts of influence? Independence movements? Religious groups?
  • How socially progressive or conservative are they? Is there equality for different ethnic groups, or are some persecuted? Do they have LGBTQIA+ rights? Have they improved over time, or gotten worse?
  • What role do foreign powers play in the country’s politics and economy? Is there a particular country nearby or far away that is nearly inseparable from them, for good or bad reasons? Is their trade dominated by exports/imports to one place? Are they exploited, exploiters, or something in between?
  • If applicable, what is the influence of former colonial relationships on the modern economy and politics?
  • Is the country generally stable? Do you think there will be a coup at some point in the future, and if so, what faction might replace them?

The previous country was New Zealand.

This is our Geopolitics Reading List so far! Please chime in with suggestions!

General Theory:

Canada:

Chile:

  • 1000 Days of Revolution: Chilean Communists on the Lessons of Popular Unity (I cannot personally find an online version).
  • Santiago Boys Podcast, analyzing Allende's government and Cybersyn.

Lebanon:

United States:

Venezuela:

[-] Al_Sham@hexbear.net 16 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago)
[-] SeventyTwoTrillion@hexbear.net 16 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago)

The US helping to create and then utterly destroying the Iranian reformist movement is a fascinatingly bizarre and counterproductive historical event, honestly. I have trouble even wrapping my head around it. I think I mused last year, or maybe in 2022, that Trump taking down the JCPOA would be perhaps the single most impactful part of his legacy and his single greatest mistake - and recent events only reinforce this now that Zionism is the closest it has ever been to collapse, while Iran appears ascendant. Imagine what the Middle East would look like right now if Trump had never done that. I suppose this does in fact mean that we aren't living in the worst possible reality, because there's always that one.

[-] Al_Sham@hexbear.net 17 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago)
[-] HexReplyBot@hexbear.net 4 points 5 months ago

I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:

[-] Al_Sham@hexbear.net 15 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago)
[-] Neptium@lemmygrad.ml 11 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago)

The Reformist-Moderate faction, more commonly referred to as just Reformists, generally aligns themselves with the interests of big business, major capitalists, and the Chamber of Commerce in Iran [17, 18]. The Rafsanjani family themselves are one of the richest in the country and hold large plots of land in Kerman Province [19]. From 1989 till today Iran has seen the implementation of strong neoliberal policies spearheaded by the Reformist movement, leading to the expansion of the power of oligarchs [17, 18]. After the Obama administration implemented so-called crippling sanctions on Iran in the early 2010s, the economic interests of this oligarchy were threatened [19].

Hmm this is interesting.

I have read Socialism’s Ignored Success: Iranian Islamic Socialism by Ramin Mazaheri and he argues that even for the “reformist” faction, the nature of the “privatisations” were more inline with Chinese Socialism than it is of the neoliberal austerity found in the West.

“So, by the end of his (Rafsanjani’s) presidency, 86 per cent of the country’s GDP still came from the state-controlled sector and the remaining 14% also included the share of the powerful foundations which worked closely with the state.” So the allegedly-rabid capitalist Rafsanjani (which is inaccurate, because he was also an Iranian revolutionary and thus against unfettered capitalism), who is the godfather of the neoliberal Reformist Party (also inaccurate – he had many ties with Principlists), successfully privatised much of the gains of the Revolution (another inaccuracy, he actually increased it), and thus privatisation has destroyed Iran, made a joke of their Revolution, and shows why “Iranian Islamic Socialism is a sham” (to quote the WSWS).”

…“Western-style privatisation simply cannot be tolerated in Iran – no political group could pay that price and survive. This is obviously because of the decades of modern political anti-capitalist discourse both before and after 1979 which is ingrained in Iran’s unique and revolutionary culture and among the populace. Iranian culture is definitely unique in this sense.”

…“If I am being precise, it is impossible for Iran to pursue neoliberal policies, which are based on reduced government spending, private over public ownership, pre-socialism ideas of deregulation, a free market domestically and free trade abroad regardless of ideology (even Zionism). This chapter has shown just how repugnant all of these ideas are, in a democratic way, to a huge mass of Iranians. “Neoliberal”, after all, is the extreme-right form of capitalism, and I would imagine the number of adherents in Iran to this form – which clearly violates multiple key tenets of Islam – to be a tiny minority.”

I don’t speak the language and I can’t verify if these claims are particularly factual or not, but I guess what I can is that there is a debate ongoing among Iranians in Iran itself regarding their own affairs, and clearly Westerners have a heavily distorted image of Iran at large.

[-] Al_Sham@hexbear.net 5 points 5 months ago* (last edited 5 months ago)
[-] zed_proclaimer@hexbear.net 9 points 5 months ago

Trump destroying JPCOA and assassinating Soleimani actually was extremely stupid and short sighted from an imperialist perspective. They had Iran hooked and were reeling them in, and Trump cut the line

[-] heartheartbreak@hexbear.net 10 points 5 months ago

Hyped for comments this mega I feel like there's so much I don't understand about iran

this post was submitted on 29 Jan 2024
87 points (100.0% liked)

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