Has anyone notiticed how headlines about Russia is either
"Russia is about to fall apart"
or
"Russia is about to invade all of Western Europe"
this post was submitted on 18 Sep 2023
174 points (96.8% liked)
NonCredibleDefense
3496 readers
150 users here now
Rules:
- Posts must abide by lemmy.world terms and conditions
- No spam or soliciting for money.
- No racism or other bigotry allowed.
- Obviously nothing illegal.
If you see these please report them.
Related communities:
founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
Why Russia Isn't Actually Collapsing
This video is kind of sobering. It appears to be objective, but as with anything on the internet, don’t take it as the gospel, seemed fairly informative without going into either extreme.
TL;DR While Russia has faced heavy losses during the war, both on the battlefield and through sanctions, they’re still a petro-state with vast reserves of natural resources. Unless something unexpected happens, they’re likely to be able to carry out this war for quite awhile and are banking on the somewhat fickle Western world getting bored and moving on from supporting Ukraine. About the only hint of trouble is their worker shortages, but that may or may not be a huge enough issue to change things. It’s kind of a depressing video to watch and the videomaker himself has had videos in the past claiming that Russia was on the verge of collapse before, though I guess learning new information and changing your opinions isn’t necessarily a sign of weakness.
Wartime economies can be sustainable, doesn't mean Russia cannot be defeated in the battlefield. West just needs to maintain and increase support to Ukraine.
Probably the best comparisons can be made to the Afghan War. However, Russia today is much weaker than the Soviet Union of the 1980s and the Ukrainian army is a more formidable adversary than the Mujaheddin. The potential for the war to be protracted, however, is great, as Putin likely sees defeat here as an existential threat to his power.
Lol. Piggy very nearly collapsed the Russian state with only a few hundred men but he chickened out. Probably because he doesn't know what to do after he wins. Russia will collapse if anything happens to Putin. It will be the Warrring States Era for Russia soon after.
Haven't seen any of the latter type, honestly. Not headlines, at least - certainly some Very Intelligent Internet Commenters(tm) raising those fears.
Occasionally I see "Russia is threatening to invade all of Western Europe." But they threatened a lot of stuff over the years.
They also might try, which would be a problem for border countries, even if it’s unsuccessful
Poland just bought nearly 500 HIMARS. I cannot fathom the hate they would unleash on Russia the second the first tank rolled over the border.
But like, I don’t want one polish person to die, which probably would not happen if there was an invasion. Right now, Georgia and Kazakhstan would be pretty well equipped comparatively, but winning doesn’t mean not getting hurt.
There'd be an awful lot of wrecked tanks and burnt-out trucks to clean up at the border, I can see how that would be a problem.
I've been waiting for this headline, but there is still some time to go. Covert Cabal goes over satellite imagery and does a count of all of the tanks visible from space. It's a lot, but there Ukraine is destroying a lot of them and Russia has a bottleneck with refurbishing the poorly stored tanks. Eventually Russia is going to struggle with fielding old tanks, let alone modern tanks, and looks like we are starting to get there.
you might consider Perun's latest video informative in this aspect
he goes through documented losses of armour and concludes that there's some ongoing production of modern tanks and IFVs, but it's wildly inadequate and increasingly older shit is taken from storage, like BMP-1 over BMP-2 or T-80B/BV over T-80BVM
Ooh yes, I haven't been keeping up with his latest videos. Time to put some on while I cook.
Kazakhstan border blitzkrieg when
Who need nightvision anyway, just make sure you only fight during the day.
"Fear of the Dark" will be the new Russian military anthem.
Considering the Mongols now have Harley Davidsons this conquering should be even faster than the first time.
Also, the sponsor of that video is NCD, which is neat