I'm convinced 98% of this is the U.S testing it's own defense/recon capabilities with no notice to certain bases/installments.
this post was submitted on 04 Dec 2024
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other possibility is that one of the adversaries has some new toys
I think that's the other 2-4% and that is when we've seen crazy action. Media would not shut up about the "Chinese Balloon!!" and it was full-on shot down by a jet-fighter.
Meanwhile, we have sights and reports of mystery drones at about every NATO military installation and it's just kinda treated as "meh, let congress investigate it".
The balloon was pure political theatre, but if there was an actual threat they couldn't understand then they would keep quiet I suspect.