When the headline reads like a War Room release, I develop some doubt about the story.
this post was submitted on 17 Dec 2024
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I would really hope the ndp, bloc, greens and independents can galvanize and give us a real alternative government that actually serves the peoples unlike the rich owned conservatives and liberals.
At this rate, maybe we'll get lucky and NDP will (at least breifly) get some power and push for electoral reform. Its a long shot, but at point, it seems like the only way to get a better election system.
Right now there's a higher chance of the Bloc Québécois forming the official opposition than the NDP, which hasn't happened since 1993. Once polls incorporate Freeland's departure into the Liberal numbers, I'm pretty sure the Bloc will be forecast to win more seats than the Liberals.
Unfortunately I don't think the NDP has a shot of forming any significant portion of our next government. They 100% need to dump Singh and get their platform message out better. There actually aren't very many tossup LPC/NDP seats, just 4/16. So it's unlikely to me that we'll get an NDP swing from LPC votes.
https://338canada.com/federal.htm
Effectively what the forecasts are saying:
- BC swings conservative. The NDP lose half their seats there. CPC wins 80%
- AB unsurprisingly stays CPC
- Ontario swings massively to CPC, with CPC winning 80% of seats. The NDP steal 5 seats from the Liberals, but ~60 seats go from LPC to CPC.
- Quebec sees modest increase in Bloc seats, all coming from LPC
- The Maritimes swing hard to CPC, Liberals lose every maritime province and keep only a sprinkle of seats
BC swings conservative because they wanted to kick Trudeau out. Which gives some idea of the relative intelligence of the voters. Think you should at least need to pass a test to vote.
Proportional representation would force John Rustad to work much harder to win a majority as he would need 51% of the vote instead of 44%. Hell he could win a majority with only 30% of the vote if he knows how to play the ridings well.
Oh, I'm definately not expecting NDP to win the next election. My though it more that if the Liberal party keeps imploding at the rate it is right now, it might be possible that NDP might be able to breifly take power once people are tired of CPC rule and the pendulum swings back. I don't expect they'll stay in power long (or at least not with any integrity) but at that point, it'd be in their best interest to pass electoral reform to avoid splitting votes with the Liberals.
I know its a long shot, and its unlikely they'd implement anything better than instant runoff / ranked choice, but at this point, thats the only hope for better goverment that seems at all feasible.
The NDP is not going win anything, this is going to be a majority goverment run by PP
You missed run “into the ground.”
I feel like the NDP had their chance after Layton, but Mulcair didn't catch much attention from the electorate. The Supply and Confidence agreement was probably their chance for this decade.
Hopefully when they pick up a new leader they'll get better communications staff and start doing outreach.
but Mulcair didn't catch much attention from the electorate.
That's quite the euphemism for "electing a neoliberal and moving right". And yeah, that wasn't helpful, especially after the NDPs biggest win in like, forever. Specially when that win came from Quebec...
Was it policy, or taking a stance on "religious symbols"? I feel it's more the latter, but I can't remember much about that election.
In 2011 Quebec voted almost unanimously for the NDP, convinced for once that they were on the same page as the ROC. It had nothing to do with religion, it was all about policy. Somehow after that the NDP thought it would be a good idea to replace Layton with a Liberal from Quebec that no one liked and move the party to the right.
After the 2015 election, Mulcair said:
"[The niqab] hurt us terribly. It was measured. I can share with you that the polling we did showed we dropped over 20 points in 48 hours here in Quebec because of the strong stand I took on the niqab,"
As the rest of the mea culpa states, the NDP made lots of mistakes. The niqab footgun was the easiest to see because of the immediate and angy reaction, but the others clearly hurt as well.
Mulcair can say that if he wants, but I guarantee you the move to the economic right while insisting on idopol is what sank them. At the exact same time the most popular politician in Quebec was Amir Khadir, an Iranian, running for Quebec Solidaire.
“If she has leadership ambitions in the future, it’s important she not be the cause of sinking the ship,” Queen’s University political studies professor Jonathan Rose said. Publicly separating herself from Trudeau’s spending policies, like the GST holiday and $250 cheques for Canadians, makes sense if she wants to position herself to lead the Liberals post-Trudeau, Rose told Canada’s National Observer.
Like Trudeau, Freeland’s strategy on climate change is not always aligned with climate science. She has supported clean energy tax credits to incentivize growth in renewables, but she has also played a key role promoting fossil fuel extraction — which climate science is clear must be rapidly phased out.
I still don't see us transitioning to full green energy until we build up our nuclear plants.