Asklemmy

Frankly, we don't really know yet because we can't predict what either side will do, or what concerns/problems are boiling away under the surface.

What's important about real world events is that they are not like a board or video game. In a video game it doesn't matter if you flawlessly KO your opponent or win by the tiniest sliver of health, a win is a win.

In the real world though the resources and lives poured into conflicts like these can very well be used for something more productive. At any moment russia could swallow their pride and pull out, but they could also fight to the last man to never admit defeat.

Additionally the methods of victory differ between Ukraine and her allies (the west).

The US and Europe want a swift victory to garner support from voters. So they push Ukraine to do risky offensives and maneuvers.

Ukraine on the other hand wants to play its cards very carefully. Right now they recognize for every Ukrainian casualty, there are multiple Russian casualties. They want to maintain that postive ratio and do not want risky or loss heavy offensives. You can see this mindset at work in Bahkmut. The west wanted Ukraine to pull out of Bahkmut immediately but Ukraine recognized the extremely favorable casualty ratios, with many Russian casualties for each Ukrainian which is why they held on so stubbornly. It wasn't to hold Bahkmut, it was to grind down the Russian force.

My thumbs are dying so I'll direct you to a very accurate and detailed source of info on the conflict. Check out William spaniel on YouTube, he is an author and has many videos on the conflict, outlining the goals and problems on each side.

The war is largely in a stalemate at the moment. Odds are, if this continues for years longer, Russia will eventually win just by virtue of having more people to send to die for the country, but if it comes to that, Russia will suffer far moreso than they already are, both due to increased strikes within Russia and just loosing the majority of their working population.

At the moment Ukraine is winning.

When Trump is crowned GEOTUS, after the Repubs win 2024 ( the economic rug-pull in 2024 will remove the Dems, through backlash-vote ) then the tide will turn, as the gutted remains of NATO/OTAN try to understand how to endure as the TOTAL global geopolitcs table got thrown, violently, on its side, scattering all the playing-pieces, all the indicators, EVERYthing gets flipped, then.

GEOTUS Trump will back Russia & Saudi Arabia, both.

Possibly China, as well ( he does have investments in China ).

The remains of the Western-cultures' alliance are then on their own.

US Civil War Part2 will probably destroy about a quarter billion lives in North America within 14y,

and ww3 begins a mere 7y after Trump's crowning ( +/- 1 year ).

Things are going to be VERY tough in Eastern Europe, with the US pouring its support into exterminating the former Soviet Bloc countries who oppose Putin/Russia, with the US backing Russia.

Wait & see.

It's going to be hell, on Earth, for almost-all of this century.

The drastically quicker-than-simulated sea-level-rise isn't going to help, particularly since Greenland's meltwater will drown the North Atlantic coasts ( it takes 1000 years for it to redistribute to near Australia. The 1st few centuries it'll be predominantly drowning the West ), and when you add enough water to raise the PLANET's sea-level by 1 metre, but you put it ALL in the North Atlantic...

it may well be 3m around the North Atlantic, this century.

( there is a powerlaw underlying planetary heating, current atmospheric CO2 requires the planet to equilize at more than +5C.

When you add-in the anthrogenic methane, as CO2 equivalent, the planetary equalization temperature is more than +8C.

All the "+1.5C" and "+2C" are baseless delusions, contradicted by historical data of the last couple million years. )

Anyways, eyes-open, calibrate, prepare, & earn making oneself competent for what is guaranteed to come, right?

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