I've read both that russias economy is doing well shifting to a wartime economy and it's approaching on collapse any day now. I don't know what to believe.
this post was submitted on 11 Dec 2023
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Both are wrong and right in a way. Russia is spending a lot on weapons and the war. That obviously means a lot of jobs in weapons factories and as soldiers. Due to labour shortages Russian workers can ask for more money and Russias economy is unequal enough, that the factory have to and can pay for it. Also Russian soldiers earn rather well these days. Therefore a lot of Russians are not only not suffering, but their quality of life is improving. When you live in a village in Siberia without running water, no washing machine and a Soviet car getting $30k is a huge improvment for your life.
At the same time less workers due to soldiers being drafted and people fleeing from the draft causes problems for the rich. They also suffer from the sanctions the most.Then you have high inflation and with worker shortages and propably more drafting that means a wage-price spiral is possible. That is wages go up, which makes products more expensive, which drives inflation, which then makes workers ask for wage raises and so on and so forth. Also the oil price, which is Russias largest export is falling, so less foreign exchange is available for imports, further increasing inflation. The war also does not come cheap. Russia has worked against it with higher taxes, which again means more inflation and selling assets. Especially the later is a huge potential futher problem. There also is a cut in infrastructure spending and a lot of oil and gas infrastructure towards the EU has become useless. Again that is a slow acting poison.
What it boils down to is many if not most Russians have a better life due to the war, but the rich suffer a lot. Obviously they have nothing to complain about or they can not complain anymore. At the same time the future of Russia as a country is being sold for the war. If Russia does not win the war, that means a long term weaker Russia. However do not hold your breath, they are not having a revolution.
They're using NKnshells and are firing 70% less shells than the start of the war. The production cap is not close to a war economy..
From the article:
Predictions of a Russian economic collapse—made almost uniformly by Western economists and politicians at the start of the war in Ukraine—have proven thumpingly wrong
The cost to Russia of Putin’s imperialism is not collapse, it is the huge loss of lives, and the future economic pain and job losses that will be needed to bring inflation back under control
It's not going to collapse, but they will need to take drastic changes to keep financing the war with taking money from firms and even normal people at some point.