Personal Finance

Oh look, a version of the article everyone seems to put out regularly for the last 2+ years or so. My mortgage is a 3.125% rate. If I move and buy the same house my payment goes up 50% just on interest. They'll drag my dead body out of this house with current interest rates.

This is literally the vast majority of homeowners right now. No one is selling. Inventory levels have been at historic lows for a reason. The only way the housing market sees a significant downturn is if the economy as a whole eats shit and people can't pay their mortgages.

Why would anybody ever sell their house if they have a pandemic mortgage rate of 3%? Because now rates are like 7%, you’d be losing so much money. Only way you should sell is if you’re paid off, and are buying in cash. But in that case, it wouldn’t really affect the market.

Would be super fantastic if y'all could include geography in articles like this. Even narrow it down by continent if you're really just trolling for clicks.

It'll drop a few percentages, this allowing predictions to be true... but then rise dramatically.

Look at the past 50 years and every ebb and flow.

I doubt it. Had a friend try and get into a house last month. Things had cooled off. Was listed at 1.1 and they offered .8. Offer accepted, then they got cold feet and backed out. It just sold for .95. They feel like idiots.

Prices cooled for a bit. I think that's done. Its going to be very market specific, but in markets that are suffering any kinds of climate related loss of structures (California, Oregon, Washington, Florida, Hawaii), don't expect any significant reductions in home price. Now what happens in the insurance markets as a biproduct of new legislation and how that effects both rates and availability, that's whole separate ball game. But as far as the desirable areas of the country, I think that dip we saw was pretty much it. Expect no more rate hikes after then next 8-12 months. Wages will be gobbling up their portions of inflation as things smooth out from the preposterous amount of money injected into the system during covid. I would expect homes to be up 30-50% over the next 4-10 years. The only thing I think that could prevent that is a collapse of the insurance markets, which, does look possible in California.

This is the best summary I could come up with:

The latest read on home prices shows they hit another all-time high in July, rising 2.3% from the same month last year, according to Black Knight.

“In addition to monthly gains slowing below long-term averages, Black Knight rate lock and sales transaction data also points to lower average purchase prices and seasonally adjusted price per square foot among recent sales,” said Andy Walden, vice president of enterprise research at Black Knight.

“All of these factors combined underscore the need to focus on seasonally adjusted month-over-month movements rather than simply relying on the traditional annual home price growth rate.”

“While the uptick in new listings is good news for home shoppers, inventory remains persistently low, even with record-high mortgage rates putting a damper on demand,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com.

The jump in home prices since the start of the Covid pandemic, combined with much higher mortgage rates has crushed affordability.

It now takes roughly 38% of the median household income to make the monthly payment on the median-priced home purchase, according to Black Knight.

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doubt