sevan

One thing to keep in mind is that the reported GDP is net of inflation and the average market return is not. So, 2-3 percentage points of the gap is explained by inflation. We're also sitting at or near all-time highs from a valuation standpoint, so some of that 8-12% is explained by increased valuations. To get 8-12% going forward, we would either need to see a GDP boom or valuations have to keep growing.

That said, valuations do seem to go up at a higher rate than GDP over the long run, even with those issues accounted for. I'm guessing the rest of the issue is some combination of productivity growth and the fact that GDP is defined by national borders and companies are not. There is also likely some impact from credit cycles, particularly the fact that interest rates declined from 1980 to 2022.

So, is nvidia the cisco of this cycle?

Its an OK game. I got it on sale and don't regret the time spent playing it, but the controls are awkward and there wasn't much nuance to the story. There appear to be lots of potential story-line elements based on your decisions, but it was too slow and cumbersome to be worth a replay for me.

By comparison, I quit Heavy Rain pretty early, I seem to recall walking around yelling for my child for an extended period of time and that was the last I ever played it. IMO, Detroit is a much better game than that.

It looks like Steam has it on sale for $12 at the moment, which is less than I paid for it. I played it one time through for 12 hours, so $1 per hour of entertainment isn't terrible. Not a glowing endorsement, I guess.

Thanks, I'm guessing the benefit of subscribing is to create that persistent relationship. The free version from MS that I'm using times out after a while. I definitely get the problem of it making up experience for me when it encounters something in a job description that isn't referenced anywhere in my info. Honestly, I'd probably get more interviews if I just let it make up stuff, but I'm guessing that might become a problem for me later. :)

I interviewed for a job recently and asked why the position was vacant. They said the previous person died. I didn't have the courage to ask if the death was work-related though.

Can you share a bit about how you used it? I've used Copilot a bit to try the same thing, but it makes so many errors that I spend too much time editing and fixing them. Also, after running quite a few cover letters, I found that the text was repetitive and unnatural in a way that made it really obvious that it was an LLM writing the letter and not a person.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_citizen_movement

Morons who think their country's laws don't apply to them.

This is great information, thanks! In several cases it wouldn't have helped us because of the 3 day advance request requirement, but at least its an improvement. Still not as good as what auto mechanics are required to provide, but its a step in the right direction.

When I used to make cider, I used store-bought juice and fermented with safale s-04. I like my cider slightly sweet, so after fermentation I would add some frozen apple juice concentrate to sweeten it and then keg it and refrigerate it immediately so the added sugars don't ferment.

I haven't made any in a long time, but I always liked using Safale S-04 for my ciders.

I'm not 55 yet, but I was also way more into online games when I was in my 20s than I am now.

Also, there's this common "feature":

Dr: "You need this procedure."

Me: "How much will it cost me?"

Office Manager: "I won't know until I bill your insurance and find out if it is covered."

Me: "What is the cash price I would pay you if it isn't covered by insurance."

Office Manager: "I have no idea."