uphillbothways

joined 1 year ago
[–] uphillbothways@kbin.social 20 points 10 months ago

"You better not let us lose these elections or we'll get even worse."

[–] uphillbothways@kbin.social 8 points 10 months ago

Top 10 hottest so far. We've just opened up the DLC levels. Spicy times ahead!

[–] uphillbothways@kbin.social 16 points 10 months ago

Thousands more people to join the growing protests.

[–] uphillbothways@kbin.social 1 points 10 months ago

Didn't have kids. Volunteer at local parks working on specialist plants. Look forward to not waking up one day.

[–] uphillbothways@kbin.social 17 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago)

Hoarding wealth in greater quantities than you could ever use in order to have power over others desperate to just survive is abusive to start with. They're probably exposed to other people with all variants of abusive tendencies and trained to believe they are better than and deserving of the suffering of others. Being raised in that environment will definitely encourage a much higher proportion of other abusive behaviors.

[–] uphillbothways@kbin.social 17 points 10 months ago

We're on the vertical part of the graph now. CO2 concentrations for the last 800k years. We're fully 25% over the maximum free CO2 over that period. Investments in extraction are still accelerating. Atmospheric methane, while shorter lived, is at the highest we've ever seen.

Climate averages are based on 30 year moving averages, generally. But there's every reason to believe we're into the hockey stick now. You can't simply put away atmospheric carbon that took geologic processes millions of years to sequester and we're not even slowing down. Even while regenerable sources take up a larger proportion of power generation, we're not drawing down the bad sources. We're just increasing our capacity for power consumption.

[–] uphillbothways@kbin.social 33 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago)

The C-level staff are just going to use this to justify bonuses in the face of poor quality and faltering sales. They never pass up a scape goat. Bastards.

[–] uphillbothways@kbin.social 1 points 10 months ago (1 children)

I could see Gary Oldman feeling that way about that role. Love the movie, but yeah.

[–] uphillbothways@kbin.social 16 points 10 months ago* (last edited 10 months ago) (1 children)

They know these games sell systems. This and another recent headline about PS+ titles being Sony exclusives costing the company amount or whatever....
They know a huge part of why these projects are worth the cost is outside of sales of that game and as a mechanism to maintain market dominance.
(Edit: a word)

[–] uphillbothways@kbin.social 10 points 10 months ago (3 children)

I haven't found any good resources even in urban areas. There's just not much there for older NDs. Everything is geared towards children. Also, think it's very unknown how much more exhausting masking gets as you get older. It's not something you just get better at, it still takes a lot of effort and as you age and energy levels drop it becomes more and more unsustainable.

 

Long before quiet quitting, boomers rejected "working for the man," says UNC sociologist Arne Kalleberg, "which is exactly what’s happening now."

The ideal job of the 1950s looked a great deal like a marriage. As Fortune editor William Whyte wrote in his classic workplace study The Organization Man, by midcentury, the ranks of the rapidly growing white-collar workforce became filled with young men who had left their hometowns to devote themselves to their companies. It was an anonymous, bureaucratic turn for the supposedly ruggedly individualistic American economy. In turn, the employers, flush with profits in the postwar economic boom and wanting to retain their talent, offered a steady stream of promotions and carrots, like health insurance and pensions, that kept people tied to their employer. Then the job-hoppers arrived and consigned the organization man to history.

The dominant media narrative of the last several decades pinned the blame for this on Gen Z and millennial up-and-comers, often painted as the mercenaries who killed off corporate loyalty—ready to walk the minute they don’t get all they ask for, and the driving force behind the Great Resignation, “quiet quitting,” “rage applying,” and any number of similar workforce trends.

But the federal government itself has weighed in with new data that exposes this has been a lie. The original job-hoppers were none other than the baby boomers, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, who switched employers at least as much, and possibly more frequently, than millennials did at the same age.

In particular, men born in the second half of the baby boom era, 1957 to 1964, had racked up an impressive 10 jobs by the time they turned 34, and averaged 12.7 jobs by the time they turned 56, the BLS noted in a recently released report. Most of that job-hopping, as one might expect, happened early in their careers, with, on average, just under one job per year between ages 18 and 24, more than millennials did at the same age.

“In the beginning of your career, you sample the job market, you look around and see what is available, and you don’t get into stability until you’re in your 30s or 40s. That is a pattern that’s always held true,” said sociologist Arne Kalleberg, who teaches at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill.

Indeed, rather than belonging to a particular generation, job-hopping appears to be a byproduct of the modern economy: a behavior that most workers experience early in their career (something they often forget that they had done once they’re more established). Like Gen Zers today, millennials and Generation X and, yes, even boomers had to contend with accusations that their desire for meaningful work, decent pay, and work-life balance were unreasonable. In fact, the boomers initiated the rebellion against the “organization man” mindset of their parents, Kalleberg said.

“Young people in the late ’60s, and ’70s began to criticize this view of work, because it was part of the establishment. They started rejecting the materialism of their parents and saying, ‘we’re going to find self-actualization,’” Kalleberg said.

“They rejected this idea of working for the man, which is exactly what’s happening now,” he added.

More stable than their predecessors
If anything, compared with their predecessors, millennials job-hopped at a slower rate. According to BLS figures, older millennials—those born between 1980 and 1984—had held an average of seven jobs by age 28, one less than baby boomers at the same age. At age 34, millennials averaged 8.6 jobs, about one less than baby boomers at the same age.

Blame the 2007 financial crisis, the Great Recession that followed, and the excruciatingly slow “jobless recovery” that hit young people hardest. Job hopping is one sign of a strong economy—workers don’t move unless they have somewhere to move to. In the decade after the recovery and until the pandemic, “the labor market just hasn’t been as tight, so people didn’t have as many opportunities to switch jobs,” said Nick Bunker, chief economist at job board Indeed.

Another reason, economists say, is that today’s young people stay in school longer and take more time to formally enter the job market, which reduces the number of jobs they hold on average during their lifetimes. And the heavy student debt load racked up by young graduates has also likely made them less inclined to take risks by job-switching.

In fact, while some pundits today worry that the stereotypical younger worker is “disengaged” or “doesn’t see a future” with their employer, as Gallup wrote in a poll this year, it wasn’t so long ago that economists had the opposite worry—that younger workers don’t move around enough.

In 2016, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco highlighted “a pronounced decline in the job switching behavior of young workers,” and mused whether those workers were choosing job security “at the cost of diminished experimentation with different jobs.” That same year, another set of Federal Reserve researchers highlighted the trend at a Brookings Institution symposium, noting that “Less fluidity in the labor market leads to fewer opportunities for workers… and thus may have important implications for the macro economy in general.”

No more ‘organization man’
The data also makes clear that the archetype of the “company man” who stays in a single job for his entire career was well on the decline by the time baby boomers came of age. To be sure, some of the boomer generation who started working in the late 1970s and early 1980s had this experience of stability. But this was also the decade that ushered in massive de-industrialization, the transition from a goods to a services economy, the decline of unions that had protected workers and encouraged company loyalty, and the mass layoff as a corporate strategy. (One of the strategy’s early proponents, General Electric CEO Jack Welch, eliminated a quarter of the company’s jobs in the first half of the 1980s, Quartz notes.)

Against the backdrop of this ever-more-uncertain economy, it’s no wonder that younger generations have tended to switch jobs less and less. The decades of the early 2000s, in which workers stayed put more and more, skewed Americans’ perception of what a “normal” job market looks like, noted Indeed’s Bunker. “We got used to such low levels of quitting and job switching, that [after the pandemic] when it went back to where it was in the year 2000, people got angsty,” he said.

Outside of a layoff, job hopping has well-documented benefits for workers. Getting a new job is usually the easiest way to get a raise, with pay for job switchers consistently rising faster than for those who keep the same job, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. The young boomers who switched jobs nearly every year at the start of their careers saw annual pay jumps of 6.5%, the BLS found. Pay—the reason most humans work—remains a major motivator today. When consulting firm McKinsey earlier this year asked workers why they took a new job, nearly all groups gave the same No. 1 reason: More pay.

“Worker mobility—the ability to find and take another job—is at the core of worker power,” economists at the Economic Policy Institute, a left-leaning think tank, wrote last year.

Not only that, but higher rates of job-switching are associated with a more productive economy overall, according to a recent working paper issued by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

“Over the long term, people moving around and finding the best fit for their career is going to be a good thing for productivity,” said Jesse Wheeler, senior economist at the business intelligence company Morning Consult. “Ultimately we want people doing jobs they like as much as possible and they are good at.”


archive: https://archive.ph/Dt8kW

 

A striking purple species is one piece of the fungal kingdom’s uncharted diversity

Deep in eastern Brazil's Atlantic Forest, a team of biologists spotted a fuzzy purple stalk protruding from the leaf litter on the ground. Following the spore-covered body down into the soil, they found a mummified spider swaddled in fungal filaments called hyphae.

One of the mycologists, João Araújo, immediately recognized the purple protrusion as a new, undocumented species of predatory fungus belonging to the genus Purpureocillium. Spores from these fungi latch onto and kill their insect or arachnid prey—and then a fruiting body bursts from the corpse to spread more spores.

Purpureocillium species share many similarities with those of their sister genus Ophiocordyceps, which includes the “zombifying” fungi that hijack the bodies of their insect prey and are featured in the apocalyptic television show and video game The Last of Us. Araújo, who works for the New York Botanical Garden, has dedicated his career to discovering new species in this intriguing evolutionary group. “Many of these specimens we collect are new species,” he says. “We know so little about them.”

The “beautiful, velvety” purple specimen would be only the seventh species of Purpureocillium discovered, says Jennifer Luangsa-ard, a mycologist at Thailand's National Center for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology. These fungi are found across the world and include one species that causes eye and skin infections in immunocompromised people. Scientists know surprisingly little about the fungal kingdom despite its importance for our health, food and environment; according to conservative estimates, only 10 percent of species have been identified, Luangsa-ard says. “We need more people looking for the missing taxa,” she adds. There's “still a lot to be discovered.”

The wild popularity of The Last of Us may lead people to spot new species, which are often hiding in plain sight, Araújo says. He adds that a naturalist recently spotted two potential species of Ophiocordyceps infecting ants at a nature preserve in Pennsylvania, a short drive from Araújo's laboratory. This discovery may allow his team to closely study the still mysterious ways these fungi manipulate and kill their prey.


archive link: https://archive.ph/ytEKh

 

A striking purple species is one piece of the fungal kingdom’s uncharted diversity

Deep in eastern Brazil's Atlantic Forest, a team of biologists spotted a fuzzy purple stalk protruding from the leaf litter on the ground. Following the spore-covered body down into the soil, they found a mummified spider swaddled in fungal filaments called hyphae.

One of the mycologists, João Araújo, immediately recognized the purple protrusion as a new, undocumented species of predatory fungus belonging to the genus Purpureocillium. Spores from these fungi latch onto and kill their insect or arachnid prey—and then a fruiting body bursts from the corpse to spread more spores.

Purpureocillium species share many similarities with those of their sister genus Ophiocordyceps, which includes the “zombifying” fungi that hijack the bodies of their insect prey and are featured in the apocalyptic television show and video game The Last of Us. Araújo, who works for the New York Botanical Garden, has dedicated his career to discovering new species in this intriguing evolutionary group. “Many of these specimens we collect are new species,” he says. “We know so little about them.”

The “beautiful, velvety” purple specimen would be only the seventh species of Purpureocillium discovered, says Jennifer Luangsa-ard, a mycologist at Thailand's National Center for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology. These fungi are found across the world and include one species that causes eye and skin infections in immunocompromised people. Scientists know surprisingly little about the fungal kingdom despite its importance for our health, food and environment; according to conservative estimates, only 10 percent of species have been identified, Luangsa-ard says. “We need more people looking for the missing taxa,” she adds. There's “still a lot to be discovered.”

The wild popularity of The Last of Us may lead people to spot new species, which are often hiding in plain sight, Araújo says. He adds that a naturalist recently spotted two potential species of Ophiocordyceps infecting ants at a nature preserve in Pennsylvania, a short drive from Araújo's laboratory. This discovery may allow his team to closely study the still mysterious ways these fungi manipulate and kill their prey.


archive link: https://archive.ph/ytEKh

 

A US B-2 Spirit bomber recently carried out a historic hot pit refueling at Orland Air Base, Norway, marking the first landing of the stealth bomber in the Scandinavian nation.

As per the US Air Force statement, the event occurred on August 29 and serves as a symbol of the joint commitment between the United States and Norway to deter potential threats and enhance the NATO Alliance.

Hot-pit refueling is an efficient technique employed to minimize aircraft downtime and enhance overall reliability. Instead of shutting down the aircraft’s engines after landing and parking, the aircrew keeps an engine operational while refueling takes place. This method ensures a continuous and streamlined refueling process.

The service said that the practice of hot pit refueling within NATO nations enables the B-2 to expand its fuel range while minimizing its downtime on the ground, ultimately enhancing the capacity to bolster combat airpower across the European theater for the United States and its allied partners.

According to Gen. James Hecker, who leads US Air Forces in Europe & Africa and NATO Allied Air Command, hot-pit refueling is evolving as a transformative tactic in bomber operations, offering increased adaptability.

This clever technique expands USAF’s operational reach, establishing temporary hubs at strategically selected and sometimes unexpected locations. These flexible capabilities form the cornerstone of modern airpower projection.

The B-2, one of three Spirit bombers stationed at Whiteman Air Base in Missouri, has been deployed to Iceland’s Keflavik Air Base. Simultaneously, a contingent of roughly 150 skilled airmen from the 509th Bomb Wing was dispatched on August 13 to lend invaluable support to this vital overseas mission.

This mission holds special significance as it marks the first return of the aircraft to the European theater following their last deployment to the continent in 2021.

These aircraft were temporarily grounded for five months starting in December due to safety concerns triggered by a fire incident involving one of the bombers.

In their current European assignment, the B-2 bombers are engaging in extensive training exercises alongside NATO and US Air Force units, although the precise duration of their stay remains unknown.

US Bomber Missions In Europe
In recent years, the strategic importance of operations in the High North has surged, exemplified by the deployment of B-2 stealth bombers to this region.

This heightened significance is linked to the evolving landscape of climate change, which potentially foresees the opening of an Arctic passage during the summer months in the not-so-distant future.

Simultaneously, uncertainties have arisen concerning the security of Northern Europe due to the profound impact of events in the Ukraine conflict and the incorporation of Finland and Sweden into NATO.

Considering this perspective, the US Air Force highlighted the paramount importance of US forces and equipment seamlessly operating alongside its Allies and Partners, recognizing that this synergy is essential for strengthening an expansive network of alliances and partnerships capable of effectively addressing both current and future challenges.

U.S. Air Force Lt. Col. Andrew Kousgaard, 393rd Expeditionary Bomb Squadron commander, said, “The long-range, penetrating strike the B-2 provides is a truly unique capability in the world, but long-range requires a lot of gas.”

“Honing our ability to interoperate with our allies and utilize partner-nation equipment and infrastructure to refuel can significantly reduce what we often call our ‘tanker bill;’ in some cases, it could be the difference between mission success and failure,” Kousgaard said.

The brief mission to Norway also aligns with the US Air Force’s ongoing commitment to exercise its agile combat employment concept, which aims to strategically reposition aircraft and airmen across various airfields to prevent them from becoming static targets in the event of a large-scale conflict.

In June, a pair of B-1B Lancer bombers from Texas made history by landing at Sweden’s Lulea Kallax Air Base during their deployment at RAF Fairford in England.

Since 2018, the United States has been conducting strategic bomber missions in Europe with the primary objective of acquainting their crews with the region, as well as nurturing relationships with NATO allies and partners.

Overall, the service believes that the greater their ability to seamlessly integrate forces and equipment for strategic maneuvering across Europe, the better prepared they become to effectively confront security challenges, both in the present and in the years ahead.


archive link: https://archive.ph/vzNsY

 

A US B-2 Spirit bomber recently carried out a historic hot pit refueling at Orland Air Base, Norway, marking the first landing of the stealth bomber in the Scandinavian nation.

As per the US Air Force statement, the event occurred on August 29 and serves as a symbol of the joint commitment between the United States and Norway to deter potential threats and enhance the NATO Alliance.

Hot-pit refueling is an efficient technique employed to minimize aircraft downtime and enhance overall reliability. Instead of shutting down the aircraft’s engines after landing and parking, the aircrew keeps an engine operational while refueling takes place. This method ensures a continuous and streamlined refueling process.

The service said that the practice of hot pit refueling within NATO nations enables the B-2 to expand its fuel range while minimizing its downtime on the ground, ultimately enhancing the capacity to bolster combat airpower across the European theater for the United States and its allied partners.

According to Gen. James Hecker, who leads US Air Forces in Europe & Africa and NATO Allied Air Command, hot-pit refueling is evolving as a transformative tactic in bomber operations, offering increased adaptability.

This clever technique expands USAF’s operational reach, establishing temporary hubs at strategically selected and sometimes unexpected locations. These flexible capabilities form the cornerstone of modern airpower projection.

The B-2, one of three Spirit bombers stationed at Whiteman Air Base in Missouri, has been deployed to Iceland’s Keflavik Air Base. Simultaneously, a contingent of roughly 150 skilled airmen from the 509th Bomb Wing was dispatched on August 13 to lend invaluable support to this vital overseas mission.

This mission holds special significance as it marks the first return of the aircraft to the European theater following their last deployment to the continent in 2021.

These aircraft were temporarily grounded for five months starting in December due to safety concerns triggered by a fire incident involving one of the bombers.

In their current European assignment, the B-2 bombers are engaging in extensive training exercises alongside NATO and US Air Force units, although the precise duration of their stay remains unknown.

US Bomber Missions In Europe
In recent years, the strategic importance of operations in the High North has surged, exemplified by the deployment of B-2 stealth bombers to this region.

This heightened significance is linked to the evolving landscape of climate change, which potentially foresees the opening of an Arctic passage during the summer months in the not-so-distant future.

Simultaneously, uncertainties have arisen concerning the security of Northern Europe due to the profound impact of events in the Ukraine conflict and the incorporation of Finland and Sweden into NATO.

Considering this perspective, the US Air Force highlighted the paramount importance of US forces and equipment seamlessly operating alongside its Allies and Partners, recognizing that this synergy is essential for strengthening an expansive network of alliances and partnerships capable of effectively addressing both current and future challenges.

U.S. Air Force Lt. Col. Andrew Kousgaard, 393rd Expeditionary Bomb Squadron commander, said, “The long-range, penetrating strike the B-2 provides is a truly unique capability in the world, but long-range requires a lot of gas.”

“Honing our ability to interoperate with our allies and utilize partner-nation equipment and infrastructure to refuel can significantly reduce what we often call our ‘tanker bill;’ in some cases, it could be the difference between mission success and failure,” Kousgaard said.

The brief mission to Norway also aligns with the US Air Force’s ongoing commitment to exercise its agile combat employment concept, which aims to strategically reposition aircraft and airmen across various airfields to prevent them from becoming static targets in the event of a large-scale conflict.

In June, a pair of B-1B Lancer bombers from Texas made history by landing at Sweden’s Lulea Kallax Air Base during their deployment at RAF Fairford in England.

Since 2018, the United States has been conducting strategic bomber missions in Europe with the primary objective of acquainting their crews with the region, as well as nurturing relationships with NATO allies and partners.

Overall, the service believes that the greater their ability to seamlessly integrate forces and equipment for strategic maneuvering across Europe, the better prepared they become to effectively confront security challenges, both in the present and in the years ahead.


archive link: https://archive.ph/vzNsY

 

NASA is making the final preparations to recover samples from an asteroid that a spacecraft will bring back to Earth in September.

NASA is making the final preparations to recover samples from an asteroid that a spacecraft will bring back to Earth in September.

Teams conducted a dress rehearsal Aug. 30 of the recovery of the sample return capsule from NASA’s OSIRIS-REx mission. In the test, a helicopter dropped a replica of the capsule from an altitude of more than 2,000 meters. The capsule descended under a parachute to land at the Utah Test and Training Range west of Salt Lake City, where personnel went through procedures to get the capsule ready for transport to NASA’s Johnson Space Center.

“We put our teams in the field, in the environment they’re going to be in, using the communications tools and the equipment they’re actually going to use on the day of recovery,” said Rich Burns, OSIRIS-REx project manager at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, during a briefing after the rehearsal.

The rehearsal was part of final planning for the return of the actual OSIRIS-REx capsule, which will arrive early Sept. 24. The capsule is carrying an estimated 250 grams of material from the asteroid Bennu that the spacecraft collected during a “touch-and-go” collection process in October 2020.

The goal of the mission, whose full name is Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security – Regolith Explorer, is to return those samples to Earth for analysis by scientists, who hope the material will offer new insights into the formation of the solar system.

“Boy, is the science team excited to get that,” said Dante Lauretta, principal investigator for OSIRIS-REx at the University of Arizona, of the samples. “We’re going back to the dawn of the solar system.”

There are still several key milestones before those samples are in the labs of Lauretta and other scientists. The spacecraft is scheduled to perform a maneuver Sept. 10 that will line its trajectory up with the Utah Test and Training Range. Another maneuver a week later will further refine its trajectory, aiming for an elliptical region of 650 square kilometers within the range. “We have a relatively small area to fit in, but we’re highly confident we’ll hit that,” Burns said.

A final go/no-go decision will come just a few hours before OSIRIS-REx releases the capsule at about 108,000 kilometers from the Earth. “We have a very long four hours from release until reentry,” said Sandra Freund, OSIRIS-REx program manager at Lockheed Martin. The capsule will reenter at more than 43,000 kilometers per hour, slowing down during reentry and deployment of drogue and main parachutes to less than 20 kilometers per hour for landing, 13 minutes after reentry.

The main OSIRIS-REx spacecraft will perform a “divert” maneuver about 20 minutes after releasing the capsule to avoid reentering itself. It will pass the Earth at a distance of 800 kilometers, putting it on a trajectory for an extended mission to visit the asteroid Apophis shortly after it makes a close flyby of Earth in 2029.

If something goes wrong with the maneuvers setting up the reentry that might cause it to miss the landing ellipse or otherwise jeopardize safety of the capsule or people on the ground, NASA will not release the capsule, Burns said. In that case, OSIRIS-REx will swing by the Earth on a trajectory that will bring it back in two years to make another attempt.

Mission teams are preparing for other problems that might come up during reentry and landing, including those that cause the capsule to crash into the ground at high speed. That is not unprecedented: NASA’s Genesis mission collected samples of the solar wind, but its parachutes failed to deploy on reentry, causing the capsule to crash in Utah upon its return in 2004.

“We learned a lot from Genesis,” said Freund. “We are very confident that we have taken the lessons learned forward from Genesis into OSIRIS-REx.” However, she said that the team has trained for various contingencies if the capsule does not land intact to preserve as much of the sample as possible.

If all goes well, though, analysis of the samples will begin almost immediately after the sample container is delivered to a clean room at a curation facility at JSC. Lauretta said an Oct. 11 press conference will discuss initial analysis of the samples, followed by presentations at the Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union in December.

Lauretta, who has been involved with OSIRIS-REx since the mission was proposed nearly two decades ago, said he will be part of the teams in Utah recovering the samples. “I wanted to personally be out there to greet these pieces of Bennu to our home planet, welcome them to the curation facility at Johnson Space Center and get them ready for the adventure we’re about to put them on.”


archive link: https://archive.ph/DhV6l

 

NASA is making the final preparations to recover samples from an asteroid that a spacecraft will bring back to Earth in September.

NASA is making the final preparations to recover samples from an asteroid that a spacecraft will bring back to Earth in September.

Teams conducted a dress rehearsal Aug. 30 of the recovery of the sample return capsule from NASA’s OSIRIS-REx mission. In the test, a helicopter dropped a replica of the capsule from an altitude of more than 2,000 meters. The capsule descended under a parachute to land at the Utah Test and Training Range west of Salt Lake City, where personnel went through procedures to get the capsule ready for transport to NASA’s Johnson Space Center.

“We put our teams in the field, in the environment they’re going to be in, using the communications tools and the equipment they’re actually going to use on the day of recovery,” said Rich Burns, OSIRIS-REx project manager at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, during a briefing after the rehearsal.

The rehearsal was part of final planning for the return of the actual OSIRIS-REx capsule, which will arrive early Sept. 24. The capsule is carrying an estimated 250 grams of material from the asteroid Bennu that the spacecraft collected during a “touch-and-go” collection process in October 2020.

The goal of the mission, whose full name is Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security – Regolith Explorer, is to return those samples to Earth for analysis by scientists, who hope the material will offer new insights into the formation of the solar system.

“Boy, is the science team excited to get that,” said Dante Lauretta, principal investigator for OSIRIS-REx at the University of Arizona, of the samples. “We’re going back to the dawn of the solar system.”

There are still several key milestones before those samples are in the labs of Lauretta and other scientists. The spacecraft is scheduled to perform a maneuver Sept. 10 that will line its trajectory up with the Utah Test and Training Range. Another maneuver a week later will further refine its trajectory, aiming for an elliptical region of 650 square kilometers within the range. “We have a relatively small area to fit in, but we’re highly confident we’ll hit that,” Burns said.

A final go/no-go decision will come just a few hours before OSIRIS-REx releases the capsule at about 108,000 kilometers from the Earth. “We have a very long four hours from release until reentry,” said Sandra Freund, OSIRIS-REx program manager at Lockheed Martin. The capsule will reenter at more than 43,000 kilometers per hour, slowing down during reentry and deployment of drogue and main parachutes to less than 20 kilometers per hour for landing, 13 minutes after reentry.

The main OSIRIS-REx spacecraft will perform a “divert” maneuver about 20 minutes after releasing the capsule to avoid reentering itself. It will pass the Earth at a distance of 800 kilometers, putting it on a trajectory for an extended mission to visit the asteroid Apophis shortly after it makes a close flyby of Earth in 2029.

If something goes wrong with the maneuvers setting up the reentry that might cause it to miss the landing ellipse or otherwise jeopardize safety of the capsule or people on the ground, NASA will not release the capsule, Burns said. In that case, OSIRIS-REx will swing by the Earth on a trajectory that will bring it back in two years to make another attempt.

Mission teams are preparing for other problems that might come up during reentry and landing, including those that cause the capsule to crash into the ground at high speed. That is not unprecedented: NASA’s Genesis mission collected samples of the solar wind, but its parachutes failed to deploy on reentry, causing the capsule to crash in Utah upon its return in 2004.

“We learned a lot from Genesis,” said Freund. “We are very confident that we have taken the lessons learned forward from Genesis into OSIRIS-REx.” However, she said that the team has trained for various contingencies if the capsule does not land intact to preserve as much of the sample as possible.

If all goes well, though, analysis of the samples will begin almost immediately after the sample container is delivered to a clean room at a curation facility at JSC. Lauretta said an Oct. 11 press conference will discuss initial analysis of the samples, followed by presentations at the Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union in December.

Lauretta, who has been involved with OSIRIS-REx since the mission was proposed nearly two decades ago, said he will be part of the teams in Utah recovering the samples. “I wanted to personally be out there to greet these pieces of Bennu to our home planet, welcome them to the curation facility at Johnson Space Center and get them ready for the adventure we’re about to put them on.”


archive link: https://archive.ph/DhV6l

 

China issued the highest typhoon warning on Thursday as Typhoon Saola, packing winds of more than 200 kph (125 mph), headed towards the southeastern coastline, threatening Hong Kong and other major manufacturing hubs in nearby Guangdong province.

Chinese forecasters issued a typhoon red warning at 6 a.m. (2200 GMT). China's National Meteorological Center said Saola, currently located about 315km (183 miles) southeast of Guangdong province, will move northwest across the South China Sea at a speed of about 10 kph (6 mph), gradually approaching the coast of Guangdong, then slowly weaken in intensity.

Wind speeds at noon (0400 GMT) were clocked at 209 kph (130 mph).

Saola will make landfall along the coast somewhere from Huilai County in Guangdong to Hong Kong on the afternoon to the night of Sept. 1, the center said, adding with its forecasted intensity, it could be among the five strongest typhoons to land in Guangdong since 1949.

As Saola approaches, Guangdong's Shenzhen city said it would upgrade typhoon warning level to yellow - the second lowest - at 6 p.m. on Thursday, and suspend classes at nurseries, kindergartens, primary and secondary schools.

China Southern Power Grid said it is stepping up inspection of equipment and strengthening measures to prevent water leakage in basement power rooms.

China Railway has suspended several major train lines and Shanghai halted trains heading to Guangdong, according to local media.

The Hong Kong Observatory said it will raise its strong wind Signal to No. 3 - the second lowest - later Thursday.

Saola will also bring storm surges to coastal low-lying areas, the observatory noted, estimating Saola is currently about 440km (270 miles) from the metropolis.

Until 8 a.m. (0000 GMT) Friday there will be heavy rainfall in parts of Fujian and areas of Guangdong. Downpours could be 100-220mm (3.9 inches to 8.7 inches) in some areas.

Saola's winds are also affecting Fujian province, where videos on social media showed waves crashing along the coastline. The meteorological administration of Shishi city issued a typhoon blue warning.


archive link: https://archive.ph/hUOtr

 

Satellite imagery and firsthand accounts show the damage wrought when Chinese authorities opened floodgates and dams this month, sacrificing whole villages to spare politically important cities.

When the remnants of Typhoon Doksuri battered northern China this month, dumping the most rain on Beijing since records began in 1883, it wasn’t only the capital that was threatened. The extreme weather also posed a severe risk to Xiong’an New Area, a sprawling development more than twice the size of New York City.

Xiong’an is a pet project of Xi Jinping, China’s most powerful leader in decades, who declared that it would be a “city of the future” — a “socialist modern metropolis” far beyond the imagination of Western capitals.

Officials jumped into action, pledging to protect the capital and Xiong’an — under construction for the past six years — at all costs. Authorities began using a network of dams and reservoirs starting July 30 to discharge water from overflowing rivers into seven designated flood zones in Hebei, the province surrounding Beijing. It was the region’s largest effort to control flooding in 60 years.

Hebei’s Communist Party secretary said the province would “resolutely serve as the moat” for the capital. Officials also pledged to protect the port city of Tianjin, population 15 million, to the east and the new Daxing international airport to the south.

Visual evidence and firsthand accounts gathered by The Washington Post show that, while the effort diverted water away from Xiong’an and other urban areas, it directly contributed to the devastation of rural villages in Hebei, destroying homes and livelihoods. Satellite images reveal that authorities’ actions led to a dramatic increase of water across those areas, covering at least 95 square miles — almost 46,000 football fields. In one of the clearest examples, more than 20 square miles of farmland near Xiong’an’s high-speed railway station were still underwater on Aug. 5.

The idea that rural areas are better suited to take the brunt of flooding dates to as early as the 1950s and 1960s, when most of the country’s flood zones — areas that are deliberately flooded to absorb excess water — were built. But such areas are no longer as sparsely populated as they once were. Local governments have allowed towns in designated flood zones to grow, despite regulations meant to control the number of residents living there.

“Is it the government’s fault or is it the people’s fault for moving back to these places?” said Wang Weiluo, an engineer and expert on China’s water system who is based in Germany. “It’s the government’s. All those people were given approvals to build their homes there. They’re the government’s rules and they didn’t enforce them.”

These areas would have experienced some degree of flooding, given the historic amounts of rainfall last month. But experts believe it was made worse by the authorities who opened floodgates on dams, releasing more than 1 trillion gallons of water — equivalent to 1.6 million Olympic swimming pools — into nearby villages and farmland.

“They chose to protect some so-called important areas and abandon some so-called not important areas. It’s a political decision,” Wang said.

Some residents in these areas interviewed by The Post said they weren’t aware that they lived in flood storage zones. Others said government flood control staff didn’t notify them before their homes were inundated and all their belongings destroyed.

It may never be known how many people died or were displaced as a result of these decisions, but at least 29 people in Hebei perished during the flooding. About 1.75 million people were relocated, including more than 900,000 from zones where houses were flooded. The economic damage totaled $13 billion in a province where rural incomes are less than a quarter of incomes in Beijing.

China’s Ministry of Water Resources and the Hebei Water Resources Department did not respond to repeated requests for comment.

Authorities knew of risks to villages
As the rain hammered China’s northeast at the end of July, waters surged down the Baigou and South Juma rivers toward Xiong’an. Hebei flood control authorities quickly shut the Baigouyin Gate, stopping the deluge from reaching a lake in Xiong’an. Hundreds of workers, toiling in the rain to reinforce levees and dams, vowed not to let “a drop of water” enter the development.

Other dams were opened to push floodwaters east toward farmland and villages in the county of Bazhou — the “vegetable basket” of the region. They were soon submerged.

“My home is gone. My factory equipment is destroyed. Many people still need to pay mortgages and car loans, and their children’s tuition fees,” said a factory manager in Renzhuangzi village in Bazhou county, who spoke on the condition of anonymity out of fear of retribution from local authorities. “Of course I’m angry.”

A wider analysis of the Bazhou area showed approximately 55 square miles of additional surface water remained in the area near Bazhou on Aug. 5, according to imagery analyzed by Samira Daneshgar Asl, a remote sensing scientist with the geospatial research firm ESRI.

The following week, Hebei’s party secretary, Ni Yuefeng — the same one who pledged to use his province as a moat for Beijing — visited the diversion system by the Baigouyin dam and held a meeting on the flood efforts. Applauding the cadres who protected Xiong’an, he said that “under the strong leadership” of Xi, they had protected the “project of the millennium,” he said.

Public documents reviewed by The Post showed that central and local government water officials should have been well aware of long-standing problems in Hebei’s flood management system that may have added to the damage.

As many as 70 percent of the dikes in the Hai River Basin, which encompasses Hebei, are prone to collapse, according to a report released in April from the Haihe Water Conservancy, part of the central government’s Ministry of Water Resources.

A 2021 Hebei government document said the “slow progress” building emergency safety structures like flood barriers, shelters and elevated platforms would cause “serious losses” if the flood zones were to be used.

Residents have made their anger as clear. Dozens of people gathered outside Bazhou government offices on Aug. 5 in a rare protest. They unfurled a long red banner with white writing that read: “Give back our homes. It was clearly water being discharged yet you still said it was the rain.”

Sacrificing part for the whole
Upstream from Xiong’an, in the village of Dongmaying, which was suddenly flooded on Aug. 3, residents were confused — and later angry — about why their homes were suddenly drenched when it had stopped raining two days before in that area.

“This wasn’t normal waterlogging. It was water being discharged. We live in a flood storage zone so we are expendable if it means protecting Beijing and Xiong’an,” said Zhang, a resident, who spoke on the condition that her full name not be used.

“There used to be no Xiong’an New Area. Now, we could be flooded at any time,” she said.

About 31 square miles of additional surface water remained in Dongmaying on Aug. 5, according to SAR imagery analyzed by Daneshgar Asl. At least 113,000 people had to be evacuated from the wider area.

Others, unaware their villages could be intentionally flooded, said they weren’t given any advance warning. One 70-year-old resident and his 64-year-old wife living in Zhuozhou, in another flood zone, had no time to prepare when floodwaters reached the second floor of their house on Aug. 2. The couple escaped to the roof and waited six hours until a neighbor passing by in a fishing boat rescued them.

“Even as the water was coming into our home, we didn’t hear a word. The government here isn’t doing anything,” said the resident, who spoke on the condition that his full name not be used out of concern for his security for criticizing authorities.

The Chinese Communist Party has set out a clear pecking order in the case of flooding. During floods in Hebei in 1996, the provincial party secretary said Beijing and Tianjin were top priority, then came railroads and oil fields. Last were the people, who would “absorb the danger and losses” for their country.

It seems little has changed. As these areas flooded on Aug. 1, a newspaper operated by China’s Ministry of Water Resources said, “It’s inevitable that you sacrifice one part for the sake of the whole.”

“The principle of flood control is to minimize losses,” Zhang Jianyun, director of the Climate Change Research Center of the Ministry of Water Resources, told a state-affiliated outlet this month. “It’s necessary to protect big cities because the cost of flooding is very high. After the flood recedes, farmland can be replanted and the loss is relatively small.”

But the losses are no longer small. Both Bazhou and Zhuozhou are home to more than half a million people, and they have been allowed to expand despite regulations stipulating growth be controlled and residents from frequently used flood zones be relocated. The population of Bazhou is now 45 percent higher than in 1996, while in Zhuozhou, it’s up one-quarter.

The episode has created a challenge for the Chinese leadership as it faces the country’s worst economic prospects in four decades, with residents demanding to know why they were deemed less important.

Weeks after the floods, protesters were still gathering in Bazhou, demanding compensation from the government. Online, people continue to vent: “To protect the big cities, you sacrifice the towns. To protect the cities, you sacrifice the countryside,” one user wrote recently on the microblog Weibo. “This is privilege manifested.”


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Hurricane Idalia is now thrashing much of northern Florida and south Georgia, whipping winds up to 90 mph, dumping heavy rain and hurling seawater into flooded cities as its impacts a 250-mile swath of the Southeast.

Hurricane Idalia is now thrashing much of northern Florida and south Georgia, whipping winds up to 90 mph, dumping heavy rain and hurling seawater into flooded cities as its impacts a 250-mile swath of the Southeast.

Several major bridges connecting islands to the mainland are now inaccessible as Idalia’s violent trek across Florida also threatens coastal Georgia and South Carolina with intense flooding, ferocious winds and tornadoes.

Idalia slammed Florida’s Big Bend area – the nook between the panhandle and peninsula – near Keaton Beach Wednesday morning at a dangerous Category 3 strength. That part of the Gulf Coast hasn’t seen such deadly storm surge and wind gust for at least 125 years.

In the vulnerable island city of Cedar Key, a water level record was shattered amid 8 to 9 feet of storm surge. And the water was still rising fast – predicted to hurl seawater as high as halfway up the second floor of an average building. (emphasis added)

Water levels on the Steinhatchee River in the Big Bend town of the same name rose more than 9 feet in about two hours Wednesday morning, reaching more than 8 feet higher than the normal highest tides and breaking – by a foot – the record set during Hurricane Hermine in 2016.

Swaths of Tampa, St. Petersburg and Fort Myers Beach also have been engulfed by wind-whipped seawater and torrential rain.

Then there’s the looming threat of a massive “king tide.” Officials in western Florida warned residents not to get a false sense of security as the hurricane slowly pulls away. (emphasis added)

“We fear that residents will walk outside, see it’s sunny outside and think everything’s fine. But there’s more water coming,” warned Rob Herrin, spokesperson for Hillsborough County Fire Rescue. “There’s still so many hazards after the winds and rains have cleared.”

‘We’re effectively cut off from the world now’

Even before landfall, Cedar Key looked “almost apocalyptic,” resident Michael Bobbitt said early Wednesday. Hours later, the disastrous storm surge had overwhelmed it.

“We’re effectively cut off from the world now,” Bobbit said. “It’s going to get a lot worse, and I’m really fearful for what we’re going to find in some of the low-lying areas and some of our older, more infirm citizens today.”

Storm surge accounts for about half of all hurricane-related deaths, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said.

Meanwhile, a tornado watch is in place for nearly 12 million people across central and northern Florida and southeast Georgia until 3 p.m. Wednesday.

And destruction is possible far behind Idalia’s forecast cone, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Wednesday morning. At least 11 tornado warnings already had been issued, with more possible – even in places “way outside the cone that you see on your TV screens,” he said.

Here are other developments around the state:

• Air travel halted: Hundreds of flights have been canceled as Tampa International Airport suspended commercial operations and St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport Terminal building closed Tuesday.

• Bridges are shut down: Major bridges connecting St. Petersburg to mainland Florida have been closed, according to online data from the Florida Department of Transportation. Road access to smaller barrier islands also is closed, Pinellas County Emergency Management said on X, formerly Twitter.

• Evacuations in at least 28 counties: Alachua, Baker, Citrus, Dixie, Franklin, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Hernando, Hillsborough, Jefferson, Lafayette, Leon, Levy, Madison, Manatee, Marion, Nassau, Pasco, Pinellas, Putnam, Sarasota, Suwannee, Sumter, Taylor, Union, Volusia and Wakulla have all issued evacuation orders, some mandatory. An emergency declaration covers 49 of 67 Florida counties.

• Power knocked out: Nearly 270,000 homes, businesses and other power customers in Florida and nearly 40,000 in Georgia had no electricity around 11 a.m. Wednesday, according to PowerOutage.com.

• Thousands in shelters: Nearly 4,500 people are taking refuge in shelters in the impact area, Red Cross data Wednesday shows. The most people – 442 – were at a site in Largo, Florida, with more than 100 shelters open across the storm’s path, the aid group said.

• Officials prepare to respond: President Joe Biden will address the government response to the hurricane Wednesday afternoon, a White House official said. The Federal Emergency Management Agency has supplies and teams on standby, including urban search and rescue teams, to assist with the response as soon as the storm passes, the official said. At least eight urban search-and-rescue teams, 33 ambulance strike teams and 5,500 National Guard members are ready, and the Coast Guard is on standby, officials said Wednesday morning.

• Hospitals suspend services: Patients were being transferred from at least three hospitals: HCA Florida Pasadena Hospital, HCA Florida Trinity West Hospital and HCA Florida West Tampa Hospital. Meanwhile, Tampa General Hospital was constructing a water-impermeable barrier to remain open for emergency care.

• Schools and universities close: 50 county school districts have issued closures, as did dozens of college and university systems across Florida.

• Thousands of inmates evacuated: Roughly 4,000 inmates were evacuated or relocated to facilities better equipped to handle the storm, according to the Florida Department of Corrections.

What’s coming after landfall

Damaging winds and heavy rain now will spread far inland into Florida, parts of Georgia and even the Carolinas. Idalia’s center is forecast to move near or along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina late Wednesday and Thursday, the hurricane center said.

“Idalia is likely to still be a hurricane while moving across southern Georgia, and possibly when it reaches the coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina late today,” the hurricane center said Wednesday morning.

North Carolina and Georgia have also declared states of emergency as they prepare for floods and hurricane force winds.

In Florida, Tallahassee and Gainesville will likely continue to experience hurricane conditions through Wednesday, with heavy rain, flooding and winds gusting over 50 miles per hour. Gainesville could also see tornadoes.

Into Georgia, Savannah is likely to see tropical storm conditions through Wednesday night, with flooding and storm surge between 3 and 5 feet and possible tornadoes. The storm’s outer bands could hit Atlanta with thunderstorms and winds up to 20 mph.

Charleston, South Carolina, into early Thursday could see tropical storm conditions, including heavy rain, flooding, tornadoes and storm surge of 3 to 5 feet.

And in Wilmington, North Carolina, tropical storm conditions are possible into Thursday, with heavy rain, flooding and storm surge of 1 to 3 feet.


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In today’s newsletter: the 38-year-old entrepreneur has emerged as the most potent threat to Donald Trump in the GOP’s bid for the White House. But what does he stand for?

Good morning. It’s more than a year until Americans choose their next president, but the race to be the Republican nominee is well under way. Their frontrunner is some guy called Donald Trump – you’ve probably heard of him. The one with the mugshot.

But today we are looking at the 38-year-old “anti-woke” tech bro who could end up being Trump’s greatest rival. Vivek Ramaswamy, a biotech entrepreneur, was widely viewed as the “winner” of the first Republican TV debate last week. Selling himself as “a patriot who speaks the truth”, he called the climate change agenda a “hoax” and promised “revolution” rather than “incremental reform”. Oh, and he vowed that one of his first acts as president would be to pardon Trump for whatever he may have been convicted of by then. Lovely stuff.

So does this bumptious upstart stand a chance at getting the Republican nomination? And could youth win over experience if he ends up going head-to-head with Joe Biden in 2024? In today’s newsletter, I discuss all this and more with Dr Leslie Vinjamuri, director of the US and Americas programme at the thinktank Chatham House.

In depth: ‘Is Trump’s base really going to grab on to someone who doesn’t look like them?’

Who is Vivek Ramaswamy?

Born in Ohio in 1985, Ramaswamy is the son of Indian Hindu immigrants, just like the UK’s own Rishi Sunak. Ramaswamy’s mother worked as a geriatric psychiatrist; his father was an engineer and a patent lawyer at General Electric.

Unlike the UK prime minister, “Ramaswamy made his own money – he didn’t marry into it”, says Dr Leslie Vinjamuri. He founded the biotechnology firm Roivant Sciences, which raised hundreds of millions of dollars with bold claims about an Alzheimer’s drug which, well, ultimately failed its clinical trial. Ramaswamy still got rich, though, taking out at least $200m (£159m) from the company, according to the New York Times.

Remind you of anyone? Like Elizabeth Holmes, the Stanford dropout in jail for defrauding investors with her useless blood-testing company, Ramaswamy has also featured on the cover of Forbes magazine. They called him “The 30-year-old CEO conjuring drug companies from thin air.” To be clear: First Edition is not suggesting the presidential hopeful is guilty of criminal fraud, just that he shares the same talent for self-publicity as Holmes.

Despite styling himself as an anti-establishment outsider, he went to Harvard, where he studied biology and performed libertarian-themed rap music under the alter ego “Da Vek”. Like Kendall at Logan’s birthday party, Ramaswamy is prone to spitting bars in public – often by Eminem, who has asked him to cease and desist using his music on the campaign trail.

What does Ramaswamy believe in?

These are Ramaswamy’s “10 truths”, according to his campaign website: “God is real. There are two genders. Human flourishing requires fossil fuels. Reverse racism is racism. An open border is no border. Parents determine the education of their children. The nuclear family is the greatest form of governance known to mankind. Capitalism lifts people up from poverty. There are three branches of the US government, not four. The US constitution is the strongest guarantor of freedoms in history.”

Ramaswamy, the bestselling author of 2021’s Woke, Inc: Inside Corporate America’s Social Justice Scam, wants to see a much smaller state, and has promised to abolish most federal agencies, including the FBI and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. He has called the climate crisis agenda a “hoax”, saying that while he accepts the climate is changing (which he says was ever thus), policies to address it “have little to do with climate change and more to do with penalising the west as a way to achieve global ‘equity’”.

Does he have a chance?

“He is certainly a contender,” says Vinjamuri. “I mean, right now, nobody’s a serious contender because Trump is sailing so far ahead. But any number of things could happen to Trump, and if one of those things happens, then Vivek Ramaswamy is the person who has captured front and centre of the GOP debates. He was the one everyone on stage wanted to put down. And that usually happens when somebody looks like a real threat.”

Will Trump ultimately secure the Republican nomination? “There’s nothing self evident that would rule him out,” she says. There are not many eligibility requirements for US presidents and a criminal record doesn’t disqualify someone from the race, so in theory, yes. But it’d be pretty difficult to campaign from prison.

If Trump is stopped it will not be “because someone says it’s illegal for him to stand, but because somebody makes the calculation that the public opinion is moving against him – too many indictments, trials, all these legal proceedings – and he is becoming less interesting and somebody else is taking the stage.”

Could Ramaswamy be that somebody? He is currently third in the polls, with Trump flying higher than ever on 49.2%. Meanwhile, Trump’s onetime nearest rival – Florida governor Ron DeSantis, who was polling 40% in January – loses support almost every time he opens his mouth. He is now down to 14.19%, with Ramaswamy next on 10.1%.

“A lot of it is going to come down to: where do people put their money?” says Vinjamuri. Ramaswamy has high-profile support from rightwing billionaires including PayPal founder Peter Thiel, as my colleague Martin Pengelly has reported.

Vinjamuri is not convinced that Ramaswamy, as the “dark-skinned son of an immigrant”, will be able to appeal to Trump’s base. “They’ll like his anti-climate, anti-woke rhetoric,” she says. “But are they really going to grab on to someone who doesn’t looks like them? The Republican party has been so dominated by a man who has peddled white nationalism, who has been racist in his rhetoric.”

Can he beat Biden?

“General elections are won in the swing states,” says Vinjamuri. “And the Democrats are not gonna swing to Ramaswamy because on every issue he is just so far away from them.”

Joe Biden has declared his candidacy, despite more than three-quarters of respondents in a new US poll saying he would be too old to be effective if re-elected president next year, when he will be 81.

“The view in the Democratic camp is that if it’s going to be Trump, it needs to be Biden. But if it’s Ramaswamy, what about Pete Buttigieg?” she says, referring to Biden’s 41-year-old secretary of state for transport, who ran for the Democratic nomination in 2020. “If Trump exits the scene, everything becomes an open question.”

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In today’s newsletter: the 38-year-old entrepreneur has emerged as the most potent threat to Donald Trump in the GOP’s bid for the White House. But what does he stand for?

Good morning. It’s more than a year until Americans choose their next president, but the race to be the Republican nominee is well under way. Their frontrunner is some guy called Donald Trump – you’ve probably heard of him. The one with the mugshot.

But today we are looking at the 38-year-old “anti-woke” tech bro who could end up being Trump’s greatest rival. Vivek Ramaswamy, a biotech entrepreneur, was widely viewed as the “winner” of the first Republican TV debate last week. Selling himself as “a patriot who speaks the truth”, he called the climate change agenda a “hoax” and promised “revolution” rather than “incremental reform”. Oh, and he vowed that one of his first acts as president would be to pardon Trump for whatever he may have been convicted of by then. Lovely stuff.

So does this bumptious upstart stand a chance at getting the Republican nomination? And could youth win over experience if he ends up going head-to-head with Joe Biden in 2024? In today’s newsletter, I discuss all this and more with Dr Leslie Vinjamuri, director of the US and Americas programme at the thinktank Chatham House.

In depth: ‘Is Trump’s base really going to grab on to someone who doesn’t look like them?’

Who is Vivek Ramaswamy?

Born in Ohio in 1985, Ramaswamy is the son of Indian Hindu immigrants, just like the UK’s own Rishi Sunak. Ramaswamy’s mother worked as a geriatric psychiatrist; his father was an engineer and a patent lawyer at General Electric.

Unlike the UK prime minister, “Ramaswamy made his own money – he didn’t marry into it”, says Dr Leslie Vinjamuri. He founded the biotechnology firm Roivant Sciences, which raised hundreds of millions of dollars with bold claims about an Alzheimer’s drug which, well, ultimately failed its clinical trial. Ramaswamy still got rich, though, taking out at least $200m (£159m) from the company, according to the New York Times.

Remind you of anyone? Like Elizabeth Holmes, the Stanford dropout in jail for defrauding investors with her useless blood-testing company, Ramaswamy has also featured on the cover of Forbes magazine. They called him “The 30-year-old CEO conjuring drug companies from thin air.” To be clear: First Edition is not suggesting the presidential hopeful is guilty of criminal fraud, just that he shares the same talent for self-publicity as Holmes.

Despite styling himself as an anti-establishment outsider, he went to Harvard, where he studied biology and performed libertarian-themed rap music under the alter ego “Da Vek”. Like Kendall at Logan’s birthday party, Ramaswamy is prone to spitting bars in public – often by Eminem, who has asked him to cease and desist using his music on the campaign trail.

What does Ramaswamy believe in?

These are Ramaswamy’s “10 truths”, according to his campaign website: “God is real. There are two genders. Human flourishing requires fossil fuels. Reverse racism is racism. An open border is no border. Parents determine the education of their children. The nuclear family is the greatest form of governance known to mankind. Capitalism lifts people up from poverty. There are three branches of the US government, not four. The US constitution is the strongest guarantor of freedoms in history.”

Ramaswamy, the bestselling author of 2021’s Woke, Inc: Inside Corporate America’s Social Justice Scam, wants to see a much smaller state, and has promised to abolish most federal agencies, including the FBI and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. He has called the climate crisis agenda a “hoax”, saying that while he accepts the climate is changing (which he says was ever thus), policies to address it “have little to do with climate change and more to do with penalising the west as a way to achieve global ‘equity’”.

Does he have a chance?

“He is certainly a contender,” says Vinjamuri. “I mean, right now, nobody’s a serious contender because Trump is sailing so far ahead. But any number of things could happen to Trump, and if one of those things happens, then Vivek Ramaswamy is the person who has captured front and centre of the GOP debates. He was the one everyone on stage wanted to put down. And that usually happens when somebody looks like a real threat.”

Will Trump ultimately secure the Republican nomination? “There’s nothing self evident that would rule him out,” she says. There are not many eligibility requirements for US presidents and a criminal record doesn’t disqualify someone from the race, so in theory, yes. But it’d be pretty difficult to campaign from prison.

If Trump is stopped it will not be “because someone says it’s illegal for him to stand, but because somebody makes the calculation that the public opinion is moving against him – too many indictments, trials, all these legal proceedings – and he is becoming less interesting and somebody else is taking the stage.”

Could Ramaswamy be that somebody? He is currently third in the polls, with Trump flying higher than ever on 49.2%. Meanwhile, Trump’s onetime nearest rival – Florida governor Ron DeSantis, who was polling 40% in January – loses support almost every time he opens his mouth. He is now down to 14.19%, with Ramaswamy next on 10.1%.

“A lot of it is going to come down to: where do people put their money?” says Vinjamuri. Ramaswamy has high-profile support from rightwing billionaires including PayPal founder Peter Thiel, as my colleague Martin Pengelly has reported.

Vinjamuri is not convinced that Ramaswamy, as the “dark-skinned son of an immigrant”, will be able to appeal to Trump’s base. “They’ll like his anti-climate, anti-woke rhetoric,” she says. “But are they really going to grab on to someone who doesn’t looks like them? The Republican party has been so dominated by a man who has peddled white nationalism, who has been racist in his rhetoric.”

Can he beat Biden?

“General elections are won in the swing states,” says Vinjamuri. “And the Democrats are not gonna swing to Ramaswamy because on every issue he is just so far away from them.”

Joe Biden has declared his candidacy, despite more than three-quarters of respondents in a new US poll saying he would be too old to be effective if re-elected president next year, when he will be 81.

“The view in the Democratic camp is that if it’s going to be Trump, it needs to be Biden. But if it’s Ramaswamy, what about Pete Buttigieg?” she says, referring to Biden’s 41-year-old secretary of state for transport, who ran for the Democratic nomination in 2020. “If Trump exits the scene, everything becomes an open question.”

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