Climate Crisis, Biosphere & Societal Collapse

“We’re losing 120 calories per person, per day, for every degree of global warming.” That stark data point from a 2025 Nature study signals more than a threat to food security, it points to a growing risk to global financial security.

Food system instability exposes markets to cascading shocks: inflation, trade disruption, insurance losses and sovereign credit stress. Yet these risks remain largely unaccounted for in core financial systems. Despite mounting exposure to climate-driven volatility, financial systems, from asset pricing models to fiscal and monetary policy frameworks, still treat food risk as peripheral.

This disconnect is no longer sustainable. As climate extremes intensify, the next financial crisis may not come from housing or tech, but from a climate-driven breakdown in the global food system.

A growing number of climate groups are campaigning for the introduction of a wealth tax to ensure the transition to a sustainable economy is not done “on the backs of the poor”.

Last week campaigners from Green New Deal Rising staged a sit-in outside the Reform UK party’s London headquarters as part of a wave of protests targeting the offices, shops and private clubs of the super-rich across the UK.

The Pay Up campaign – backed by more than 20 civil society groups including Friends of the Earth, the National Education Union and Tax Justice UK – is calling on the government to bring in a series of wealth taxes as an alternative to spending cuts. It is one of a number of campaign initiatives focused on overhauling the tax regime being run by climate groups who say the revenue from the ultra-rich could fund investment, restore crumbling public services and help tackle the climate emergency.

Britain's climate is changing rapidly, with records regularly being smashed and extremes of heat and rainfall becoming the norm, the Met Office has warned.

In an updated assessment of the UK's climate, the forecaster says heatwaves and periods of flood or drought are becoming more frequent and more intense.

Energy Secretary Ed Miliband called the findings "a stark warning" to take action on climate and nature.

"Our British way of life is under threat," Mr Miliband told the PA news agency.

"Whether it is extreme heat, droughts, flooding, we can see it actually with our own eyes, that it's already happening, and we need to act."

Uncle Paul Kabai and Uncle Pabai Pabai are afraid for the future of their ancestral homelands. Their country on the outer islands of Zenadth Kes (Torres Strait), less than 10km off Papua New Guinea, is under siege from the impacts of the climate crisis.

The two men fear the loss of their islands, their culture and their way of life, forcing their families and communities to become Australia’s first climate refugees.

The uncles have taken the federal government to court in the landmark Australian climate case, seeking orders that would require the commonwealth to undertake steps to prevent further harm to their communities.

They are arguing that the commonwealth owes a duty of care to Torres Strait Islanders to take reasonable steps to protect them from harm.

During on-country hearings in 2023, witnesses described how devastating their loss of culture due to climate change had been.

“We don’t want to be climate refugees,” Uncle Pabai, who has spent his life on the low-lying island of Boigu, says.

• Water tests from the Kok and Sai rivers near Thailand’s border with Myanmar have revealed elevated arsenic levels, leading Thai officials to warn citizens to avoid contact with river water.
• The pollution is widely believed to be linked to unregulated mining in Myanmar’s Shan state.
• Extraction of gold in Shan State has surged in the years since the 2021 military coup in Myanmar; more recently, mounting evidence suggests rare earth mining is also expanding across the state.
• Elevated arsenic levels have also been found at testing points in the Mekong, which is fed by both the Kok and Sai rivers.

Sand and dust storms affect about 330 million people in over 150 countries and are taking an increasing toll on health, economies and the environment, the U.N. World Meteorological Organization says.

“About 2 billion tons of dust are emitted yearly, equivalent to 300 Great Pyramids of Giza” in Egypt, the organization's U.N. representative, Laura Paterson, told the General Assembly.

More than 80% of the world’s dust comes from the deserts in North Africa and the Middle East, she said, but it has a global impact because the particles can travel hundreds and even thousands of kilometers (miles) across continents and oceans.

By 2040, the energy demands of the tech industry could be up to 25 times higher than today, with unchecked growth of data centers driven by AI expected to create surges in electricity consumption that will strain power grids and accelerate carbon emissions.

This is according to a new report from the University of Cambridge's Minderoo Center for Technology and Democracy, which suggests that even the most conservative estimate for big tech's energy needs will see a five-fold increase over the next 15 years.

cross-posted from: https://scribe.disroot.org/post/3506750

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Climate-related risks are an immediate concern for financial stability and economic growth. Yet until very recently, there have been no tools to systematically assess their short-term effects. The innovative short-term scenarios devised by the NGFS – the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System which brings together central bankers and supervisors from around the world to work on climate-related issues – fill this gap. The new scenarios offer financial institutions a comprehensive framework for quantifying the impacts that transition and physical risks could have on the economy by 2030. They reveal that a series of extreme climate events could cause euro area GDP to fall by up to 5% – a downturn similar in magnitude to the economic impact of the Global Financial Crisis. This blog post provides a deep dive into the results of new NGFS short-term scenarios for the euro area.

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The NGFS short-term scenarios focus on a five-year horizon, which aligns closely with the decision-making horizons of central banks, financial institutions and supervisors. The scenarios show how natural hazards and climate policies affect the economy and inflation. They also account for the reaction of the financial system by assessing how financing conditions might change, and which economic sectors could face pressure to adjust to climate shocks.

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A major innovation of the scenarios is their approach to modelling physical risks. For the first time, the NGFS captures the impact of compounding extreme weather events and how they propagate across borders through international supply chains.

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• In the Disasters and Policy Stagnation scenario, a series of natural hazards affects all European countries, starting with heatwaves, droughts and wildfires in 2026, followed by a combination of floods and storms in 2027. The compounding effects of these hazards could lead to a decline in euro area annual GDP of up to 4.7% by 2030. As production is disrupted and borrowing gets more expensive for vulnerable industries, inflation increases.

• In the Highway to Paris scenario, carbon tax revenues are invested effectively in green technologies, and euro area GDP and employment slightly increase. The green transition has limited inflationary effects. The euro area position in this scenario stands out because it has previously adopted ambitious climate policies, particularly the European Green Deal, which targets a 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared with 1990 levels.

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The melting of glaciers and ice caps by the climate crisis could unleash a barrage of explosive volcanic eruptions, a study suggests.

The loss of ice releases the pressure on underground magma chambers and makes eruptions more likely. This process has been seen in Iceland, an unusual island that sits on a mid-ocean tectonic plate boundary. But the research in Chile is one of the first studies to show a surge in volcanism on a continent in the past, after the last ice age ended.

Global heating caused by the burning of fossil fuels is now melting ice caps and glaciers across the world. The biggest risk of a resurgence of volcanic eruptions is in west Antarctica, the researchers said, where at least 100 volcanoes lie under the thick ice. This ice is very likely to be lost in the coming decades and centuries as the world warms.

Volcanic eruptions can cool the planet temporarily by shooting sunlight-reflecting particles into the atmosphere. However, sustained eruptions would pump significant greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, including carbon dioxide and methane. This would further heat the planet and potentially create a vicious circle, in which rising temperatures melt ice that leads to further eruptions and more global heating.

https://archive.ph/I4CHs

As the Texas flooding death toll reached 95 on July 6—at least 27 of them children—and Tropical Storm Chantal prompted dozens of water rescues in North Carolina, some Floridians were reminded of the disastrous "rain bomb" in 2023 that hit faster and harder than any hurricane in living memory.

Though no one died from the 2 feet of rain that deluged Fort Lauderdale in a single day in April two years ago, the relentless rain forced hundreds to flee to Red Cross shelters, covered airport runways, filled the tunnel that runs under the New River and turned downtown streets into raging rivers.

And, despite the sheer speed with which these floods took people by surprise, they have another thing in common: Climate change made them even more catastrophic.

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.sdf.org/post/38356665

Twenty-five rivers in southwestern China exceeded safe levels on Thursday, state media said, after more than 10,000 people were evacuated as the remnants of former typhoon Danas converged with East Asian monsoon rains.

Extreme rainfall and severe flooding, which meteorologists link to climate change, increasingly pose major challenges as they threaten to overwhelm ageing flood defences, displace millions and wreak havoc on a $2.8-trillion agricultural sector.

Heavy rains also hit the capital, Beijing, with one area in the sprawling Chaoyang district receiving 68.2 mm (2.7 inches) of rain in a single hour on Thursday morning, the state-run Beijing Daily said.

Ten southwestern rivers, including the Longyan, which flows through the densely populated region of Chongqing, could burst their embankments and levees at any time, broadcaster CCTV warned, citing the water resources ministry.

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Environment and Climate Change Canada’s forecast predicts a warmer-than-usual summer with uncertain precipitation levels. Bill Merryfield, a research scientist with the weather office, recently said human pollution has been a key influence on hotter summers.

Tinder dry conditions have also created the fuel needed to start hundreds of wildfires across the country, forcing thousands in Manitoba and Saskatchewan to flee their communities earlier this spring.

As of Friday, Manitoba has reported 60 active wildfires, with residents of Lynn Lake now being told they’ll have to evacuate for a second time. Saskatchewan has reported 65 active fires, with five communities under evacuation.

archived (Wayback Machine)

A proposal by the Marshall Islands and Colombia calling on countries to transition away from fossil fuels had to be dropped from the final UNHRC resolution

Kabul, a city of over six million people, could become the first modern city to run out of water in the next five years, a new report has warned.

Groundwater levels in the Afghan capital have dropped drastically due to over-extraction and the effects of climate change, according to a report published by nonprofit Mercy Corps.

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.sdf.org/post/38081729

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The Inter-American Court of Human Rights (IACHR) on Thursday handed down an advisory opinion requested in 2023 by Chile and Colombia to clarify state obligations related to the climate crisis.

In a public hearing held at the court’s headquarters in the Costa Rican capital of San José, Judge Nancy Hernández read out the trailblazing decision on climate change, which for the first time in IACHR history stated a clear link between the “climate emergency” and human rights. The opinion also recognises that states and companies have an obligation to mitigate global warming and its impacts.

“The evidence we saw during the hearings and written submissions shows us that there is no more margin for indifference,” said Judge Hernández. “This is a contribution from law, but law alone is not enough. Success depends on what each one of us can do.”

The Inter-American Court of Human Rights holds jurisdiction over 20 Latin American and Caribbean states, where its advisory opinions are binding. But the strongly-worded climate ruling states that it is binding for all signatories of the Organization of American States, including the US and Canada.

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The landmark 230-page ruling mentions for the first time a subcategory of the human right to a healthy environment, by introducing a “right to a healthy climate”. Court judges said that this is defined as a climate system “free of anthropogenic interference dangerous” for nature and people.

According to the court ruling, states are also expected to cooperate to take actions to reduce emissions that are “as ambitious as possible”, and are obliged to prevent harm by carrying out environmental impact studies.

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