forecasting

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Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Any decision we make is based on a prediction what will happen. Here we study and discuss how to do that well.

Related community: !predictions@lemmy.ca

Forecasting can be about economics, marketing, products, finance, technology, policies, demographics, energy, climate, crime, politics, or whatever.

founded 2 years ago
MODERATORS
copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de
listing: all - local
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🔮 This Substack Writer Made 2.5X in Two Weeks Betting on a Polish Election Upset (news.polymarket.com)
submitted 2 weeks ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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Will Jesus Christ return in an election year? (ericneyman.wordpress.com)
submitted 3 weeks ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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Forecaster reacts: METR's bombshell paper about AI acceleration (peterwildeford.substack.com)
submitted 1 month ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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The War in Ukraine Ends This Year: Thoughts and Predictions (thecategoricalimperative.substack.com)
submitted 3 months ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
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Betting on the Pope was the original prediction market (nodumbideas.com)
submitted 3 months ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
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Manifolds abandons Sweepstakes and goes pure play-money again (manifoldmarkets.notion.site)
submitted 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
 
 

The same on their Substack.

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The State of Metaculus (www.metaculus.com)
submitted 4 months ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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Try The 2025 ACX/Metaculus Forecasting Contest (www.astralcodexten.com)
submitted 4 months ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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https://asteriskmag.com/issues/08/the-death-and-life-of-prediction-markets-at-google via (toot.berlin)
submitted 7 months ago by lars@toot.berlin to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
 
 

https://asteriskmag.com/issues/08/the-death-and-life-of-prediction-markets-at-google via @forecasting

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Congrats To Polymarket, But I Still Think They Were Mispriced (www.astralcodexten.com)
submitted 7 months ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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The Death and Life of Prediction Markets at Google (asteriskmag.com)
submitted 7 months ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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Mantic Monday: Judgment Day (www.astralcodexten.com)
submitted 7 months ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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The Trump-Betting Whale Speaks Out: ‘I Have Absolutely No Political Agenda’ (www.wsj.com)
submitted 7 months ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
 
 

archived.

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5 Things on the Iowa Poll that Broke the Internet (news.polymarket.com)
submitted 7 months ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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Samotsvety probabilities for potential precursors of existential risk (samotsvety.org)
submitted 8 months ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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Can AI Compete With Human Forecasters? It looks like not yet (tellingthefuture.substack.com)
submitted 8 months ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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2024 Electoral Consequences (www.metaculus.com)
submitted 8 months ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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Mantic Monday 9/16/24 (www.astralcodexten.com)
submitted 9 months ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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Coalition for Political Forecasting submitted 80 pages to CFTC arguing for event contracts (comments.cftc.gov)
submitted 9 months ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
 
 

Direct link to the pdf maybe.

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The twists of the election in Venezuela (x.com)
submitted 9 months ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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Kalshi wins lawsuit against CFTC (www.mikesblog.net)
submitted 9 months ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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Nate Silver joins prediction market startup as more people bet on news (www.axios.com)
submitted 10 months ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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Forecasting is mostly vibes. So is expertise (nathanpmyoung.substack.com)
submitted 10 months ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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You don’t need to worry about which distribution to use any more (riskacademy.blog)
submitted 11 months ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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Student loan forecasts for England, Financial year 2023-24 (explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk)
submitted 11 months ago by copacetic@discuss.tchncs.de to c/forecasting@discuss.tchncs.de
0 comments fedilink
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