this post was submitted on 26 Jun 2023
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I don't know exactly where to start here, because anyone who claims to know the shape of the next decade is kidding themself.
Broadly:
AI will decocratize creation. If technology continues on the same pace that it has for the last few years, we will soon start to see movies and TV with hollywood-style production values being made by individual people and small teams. The same will go for video games. It's certainly disruptive, but I seriously doubt we will want to go back once it happens. To use the article's examples, most people prefer a world with street view and Uber to one without them.
The same goes for engineering.
It will shift a lot of human effort from generative to review. For example the core role of an engineer in many ways already is validation of a plan. Well that will become nearly the only role.
That assumes that the classes of problems that AI's can solve remains stagnant. I don't think that's a good assumption, especially given that GPT4 can already self-review and refine its output.
It will take a very long time for people to believe and trust AI. That's just the nature of trust. It may well surpass humant in always soon, but trust will take much more time. What would be required for an AI designed bridge be accepted without review by a human engineer?
We'll probably see sooner or later.