I’d like to interject that it’s not necessarily the evidence that mixed, but its interpretation. The same data can be taken two different ways.

I mean yes and no, some studies don't find evidence of competitive advantage. Some do. So, yes I agree that interpretations are mixed, but also evidence, between studies. And then interpretations of the entire body of evidence are mixed, but I personally don't think that those interpretations are of much relevance, this is a discussion that has to happen at a more granular level of each sport.

I just finished reading a link (wish I kept the url) that argued trans woman runners still outperform cis women by 12% after 2 years of hormones, pointing out the competitive requirements are only 1 year of hormones. Only in the subtleties do you find that their metrics for performance did not just involve running speed (but included push-ups), and that the underlying research admitted in conclusions that they were likely over-rating the trans women’s competitiveness…

I actually think I've seen that one, yeah. One of the reasons I mention "what kind of strength", and how that's going to differ for each sport. But yeah, in that case, an exclusion period of two years, is not unreasonable at highly competitive levels.

One of the things that I read somewhere that REALLY stuck with me is this. There will always be an "evidence-based "argument to attack trans atheletes so long as there is at least one trans athelete that is outperforming cis atheletes. If trans women are equivalent to cis women, then the real answer is that it should be even (weighted obviously) odds that the best in the world would be trans or cis… but what we seek to validate “fairness” is that no trans athelete ever actually rises to the top. Because if they do, it must have been their gender advantage.

Yeah, I agree 100% here. We should expect a roughly proportional number of transgender women to be successful.

But literally any single example of a transgender women succeeding is enough to have people crying "but they're a man!". Because, for a lot of people, they really just wanted to call trans women men, the whole sports thing is mostly just pretense.