this post was submitted on 29 Aug 2024
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Compared to most of the leadership alternatives, he was good. I appreciate that he didn't want to pander to the Poilievre base.
His overthrow was inevitable. In retrospect, at least.
TFW your election campaign was provably targeted by hostile foreign powers because your foreign policy positions are contrary to their aims and goals.
That's definitely a thing too. I'm not sure it changes the trajectory of his career though.
If the PRC hadn't meddled, and O'Toole took the 10-ish ridings he alleged were subverted (which seems like a bit of a stretch), the Conservatives still wouldn't have been able to form government.
I think Poilievre's revolt did more to turf O'Toole than the PRC.
From what I've seen, Poilievre hasn't been nearly as hawkish on China, so the PRC certainly got lucky on that one.
Fair. Though it's hard to say much about the extent and effect of interference in the 2021 federal election, because much of it is still not known by the public, and there is no plan for disclosure. O'Toole was briefed on matters that concerned him. All the public has gotten are vague claims that the interference "didn't change the outcome of the election". The notion that any citizen should find that reassuring is a chilling thought.
And from a cynic's point of view, it's arguable that Poilievre's willful blindness and mealymouthed stance on national security isn't simply a lucky outcome for foreign powers that seek to influence Canadian politics - it's a stance that could serve to materially benefit him and his party in a federal election where interference is expected.
And more generally, when choosing a leader, are Conservatives now primed to prefer weak Poilievre-type foreign policy, instead of stronger O'Toole-type foreign policy? Probably. That's a downstream effect and success of interference. It's bad news all around, and I don't think enough is made of the issue.